St. Paul, MN 55116 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

Day one

Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Key messages

- Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this evening which will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.

- More chances for rain this weekend and early next week with temperatures remaining above normal.

Discussion

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have already developed early this afternoon across western MN. One storm that promoted Severe Thunderstorm Warnings was an elevated supercell thanks to MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Extensive stratus and fog across most of central and western MN has kept temperatures stuck in the 50s, whereas farther south and east temperatures are approaching 70 where skies cleared early this morning. As the short wave continues east this afternoon, additional development is expected across the warm sector. Elevated storms have proven capable of becoming well established across western MN already. The question is not whether we will get widespread storms, but whether they will become surface-based and therefore capable of tornadoes. Low level instability is weak due to neutral lapse rates and marginal surface moisture. Also, the widespread nature of the development may further negatively impact any available low level instability. Bottom line, expect storms and be aware of a couple that may pose a threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, especially if the storms remain somewhat discrete. This remains a conditional threat.

High pressure will build in for the rest of the week, then settle over the East Coast this weekend. Return flow will bring a chance of showers Friday night and Saturday. A larger scale system still looks to take shape over the Rockies this weekend and then pull across the Plains early next week. Some guidance cuts the system off over the Plains with a large precipitation shield to the north and east of the center. Others are more progressive. Regardless how it eventually unfolds, more rain should be coming next week.

Aviation

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Solid VFR conditions expected throughout this duration for all MN TAF sites. At the two WI TAF sites, decks between 800-1600ft are still lingering behind the departing cold front. Thus, will start out both sites with the cloud cover in place but with the expectation that RNH will start out as VFR while EAU will have MVFR ceilings for a few hours before joining the remaining TAF sites as VFR. Skies will then clear out overnight and remain as such through early Friday morning, although high clouds will start to filter into western MN by then. Winds will come from the W to NW 5-10kts through much of Thursday then go light/variable Thursday night through Friday morning.

KMSP: No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT: Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 5-10kts. SUN: VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. MON: MVFR/-RA likely, mainly P.M. Wind SE 10-15kts.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MN: None. WI: None.