Richfield, MN Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

Day one

This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Key messages

- High confidence rain continues today and returns on Wednesday, lower confidence rain chances this weekend.

- After a cooler day today, warmer air returns for the rest of the week with some low 70s possible on Wednesday.

Discussion

Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Today and Tomorrow: Rain continues to fall across much of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon. This area of stratiform rain will gradually shift to the north this afternoon into the evening. Some more isolated to scattered rain showers could come together south of this main area of rain this evening into tonight. This is all driven by a shortwave off to our west. The PVA induced synoptic lift combined with warm and moist southerly flow at 850 mb has given us a solid rain setup. This flow has driven precipitable water values up above the 90th percentile both in observed climatology based on the 12Z MPX sounding this morning and the NAEFS analysis. In addition, all this saturation has also kept us in cloud cover. These clouds will persist well into tomorrow. This cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures low today with highs struggling to get out of the 40s. On the other side, temperatures will not fall much tonight due to these same clouds. Temperatures tonight will also be buoyed by some WAA. As the primary forcing shifts north some rain chances will continue across central Minnesota into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow looks to be warmer as WAA occurs with highs in the 50s to some lower 60s south of I-94 and east of I-35.

Wednesday to Thursday: The early week WAA will continue as we move into Wednesday. This will set Wednesday up to be the warmest day of the week. Highs generally in the 60s, but lower 70s are also likely (most likely across southern MN and western WI). This warm up won't last long as a cold front will move through late Wednesday. This cold frontal passage will also be the driver for our next round of rain. This should be a quicker round of rain as it will be forced by this front rather than today's broader scale forcing. This means by Thursday morning rain chances will be falling off quickly and some of the lingering PoPs are more based on some timing differences within ensemble guidance. With the warmer airmass ahead of the front there could be enough instability for some thunderstorms on Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage. The modest instability will make it unlikely for deep convection and therefore severe storms to occur. Looking towards Thursday's temperatures, this post-frontal airmass will be cooler than Wednesday. Due to high pressure clearing the skies though, temperatures will still be above normal with high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Thursday.

Friday into the weekend: Friday looks fairly similar to Thursday with the exception of the clouds starting to return late as the next system starts to move in from the west. Still a fair amount of spread in how this system plays out this weekend, so NBM PoPs remain broad and low. In general, when comparing the global ensemble systems southern Minnesota has the highest chance with more membership giving rain chances than locations to the north. As we move into the middle of this week there should be more convergence in the various members of the ensembles for us to gain more confidence in where this round of rain will occur. The overall movement of this system though does look to bring back the southerly flow and above normal temperatures look to continue through the weekend. Looking farther ahead into long range GEFS guidance it could be well into November before MSP Airport, the Twin Cities official climate site, falls below freezing. The record latest freezing temperature is November 18th from 2016, so still a while to go. GEFS means though show that it could be close to or after this record when MSP finally falls below freezing.

Aviation

Issued at 722 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026 Light rain persists through the night with visibility sticking in the 4 to 7 mile range during the rain. Ceilings start out MVFR at most sites & look to briefly lift for a few few hours during the overnight hours from southern Minnesota through western Wisconsin. Low ceilings build back by tomorrow morning with IFR through the morning across west-central Minnesota & MVFR elsewhere. Ceilings gradually lift through tomorrow afternoon but still remain predominately MVFR.

Winds will be breezy tonight with easterly gusts around 20 kts through the overnight hours. Winds become more southeasterly by tomorrow morning with gusts diminishing & speeds close to 10 kts. Winds become more southerly to southwesterly through the afternoon.

KMSP: Low clouds have currently scattered out & it remains uncertain when MVFR ceilings may return. Neighboring sites remain largely MVFR so we do expect at least a few hours of MVFR this evening, but ceilings are also still expected to lift to VFR after midnight. MVFR ceilings return tomorrow morning, between 8-10 AM, & stay there through the afternoon. Winds remain easterly through the night with sporadic gusts to 20 kts. Direction becomes more southeasterly through the morning & eventually south to south-southwesterly by the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED: Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 5-10kts. THU: VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. FRI: VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind E 5-10kts.

Watches, warnings and advisories

MN: None. WI: None.