Balm, FL 33503 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue into mid week.

- Breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers.

Discussion

Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The upper level low that has been causing our gusty easterly winds will stick around for the rest of our work week. This means we will see very similar conditions each day with gusty winds in the afternoon with some quick passing showers mainly over SW Florida and inland areas.

By Saturday a cold front will start to approach the area which will push the upper level low away from us. However, winds will remain elevated as these two systems keep the pressure gradient tight. As the front moves in we will also see an increase in moisture and shower chances for the weekend. The front itself will push through on Sunday giving us the best chance of rain we have seen in a week or two with most of the area in the 60 to 70 chance of PoPs.

We will not see much of cool down behind this system as highs remain near 80 degrees in the afternoon but morning lows should dip back down into the mid 60's. Winds will also finally be calming back down to are average 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

MVFR CIGs have finally started to lift across SW Florida but some passing light showers will still be possible through 22z. MVFR and IFR CIGS are expected everywhere overnight and will slowly lift tomorrow morning.

Marine

Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Winds remain elevated at 20 to 25 knots through the rest of the afternoon and overnight hours. As we head towards Thursday morning we will finally start to see the winds relax a little bit. It will be enough to finally let the Small Craft Advisory to expire however winds will see be 15 to 20 knots with SCEC throughout the Gulf for the rest of the week. Our next frontal system will start to push through during the weekend with winds remain around 15 to 20 knots out of the east with the best chance of rain on Sunday.

Fire weather

Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 High winds will remain through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Some quick passing showers will be possible each afternoon in SW Florida through Friday. By the weekend we will see our next frontal system head our way bringing scattered showers to the area Sunday.

Preliminary point temps/pops

TPA 71 86 72 86 / 0 20 10 20 FMY 73 88 73 88 / 10 20 10 30 GIF 72 87 72 88 / 20 30 20 20 SRQ 72 87 72 87 / 10 20 0 30 BKV 69 87 69 87 / 10 20 10 20 SPG 72 85 72 85 / 0 10 0 20

Watches, warnings and advisories

FL: None. Gulf waters: Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.