Buffalo, NY 14214 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, western and north central New York.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

What has changed

No significant changes with this update.

Key messages

1)Record warmth possible on Thursday.

2)A brief shot of light rain Thursday night. Dry weather then resumes and lasts through the weekend.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Record warmth possible on Thursday.

An expansive surface ridge over the area will begin to drift off to our east today. While this occurs,return southerly flow will develop on the western flank over the region which will aid in boosting temperatures back 'well' above normal, especially on Thursday. With the expected warmth, some records may fall or be tied, especially at Rochester (KROC) and in the Genesee Valley due to downslope flow and dry soils (see Climate section below). Additionally, winds will strengthening and then become quite breezy (gusts to 35 mph) on Thursday, strongest winds will likely be northeast of lake Erie. Given the cooler lake waters and expected SW flow, Max T's may just fall short of record territory at KBUF/KIAG. Despite that, more gorgeous fall conditions will continue areawide through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A brief shot of light rain Thursday night. Dry weather then resumes and lasts through the weekend.

A weak cold front nears the region Thursday which will bring a chance for some showers Thursday evening and night. In terms of precipitation, amounts look very meager with only a few hundredths of an inch at best possible across Western and Central NY. Given the streak of dry weather, some fire weather concerns will remain due to the dryness of fuels and leaf litter. Luckily, winds and RH levels won't reach close to critical levels through the weekend. See Fire weather section below for more details. High pressure return over the Great Lakes Friday and then sticks around through the weekend.

Aviation

VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with VFR to persist through the TAF period. A weak lake breeze may briefly impact some sites with north to northwest winds of 5 knots or less this afternoon, though for the most part, winds will favor a south to southwest direction into tonight, 5 to 7 knots. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest late Thursday morning and early afternoon, 10 to 12 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 22 knots.

Outlook:

Thursday night through Monday: Non-VFR possible with rain showers along a cold front Thursday evening and overnight. Isolated gusts up to 30 knots are possible Thursday mid-to late afternoon ahead of the front, especially northeast of Lake Erie. Non- VFR may persist in lingering low ceilings into Friday. VFR then favored through Monday.

Marine

Surface high pressure over the region will slowly slip off to our east this afternoon but will continue to support generally light winds and minimal wave action.

Thereafter, southwest winds will strengthen on the western flank of the departed ridge Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop across eastern portions of Lake Erie, and western portions of Lake America. Small Craft conditions will then spread eastward across Lake America Friday as winds shift to the west. Waves will build to 2-4 ft across Lake Erie over this period, and 3-5 ft across Lake America. Improving marine conditions this weekend with weaker winds.

Fire weather

No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks (10 days) in most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some increase in wildfire risk. Luckily, the forecast does not show a significant overlap of strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity values through this weekend.

A weak cold front and weather disturbance should generate light and periodic rain showers Thursday eve-night, but resulting rainfall amounts should be less than 0.10". Dry weather will then follow Friday and last through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter should remain very dry.

Climate

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday, October 30th.

Buffalo, NY 74 (1971)

Rochester, NY 76 (1896)

Watertown, NY 73 (1955)

Watches, warnings and advisories

NY: None. MARINE: None.