Klawock, AK 99925 Weather

Synopsis

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least late Friday night in the inner channels. Increasing winds and precip on Saturday.

- Gale force winds expected for much of the gulf Friday night into Saturday with seas up to 20 ft.

- Active weather expected to continue into next week.

Short term

The relatively quiet weather for the panhandle is slowly starting to come to an end today as clouds ahead of the next front are starting to move in. These clouds have already reached parts of the northern panhandle this afternoon and will continue to spread east. As this front works to the east, rain will start to move into yakutat later this evening. Going into the overnight hours, the precip is then expected to start for most of the panhandle with some places seeing a mix of rain and snow or potentially just snow for a few locations before they warm up. The exception to this will be the Klondike Highway which looks to stay cold enough through the weekend to see accumulating snow. With the front stalling over the panhandle Saturday into Sunday will allow for moisture to remain in the area and 700mb flow will remain out of the SW. This should allow for snow accumulations to reach up to 9-14" of snow between Saturday morning and Sunday morning.

As for the liquid amount of moisture, the NE Gulf coast looks to see around 1.5-2" of rain starting tonight into tomorrow night. For the northern panhandle and Gulf coast south of Cape Spencer, amounts look to be around 0.25-0.75". Moving into Saturday night to Sunday, rain amounts look to be around 0.5-1.5" for the panhandle with some isolated pockets of heavier rain. Temperatures should warm this weekend as well with the front allowing for places

Long term

/Sunday through Wednesday/: The front will continue to push eastward through Sunday, bringing rain to the southern panhandle beginning early in the morning and lasting through the night. At the time of the Thursday night forecast and model guidance, the main concern Sunday is looking to be the winds for the far southern panhandle. After the initial front, a meso low looks to move in from the south into the eastern Gulf, sliding up along the coastline from Haida Gwaii up into the panhandle. The uncertainty of this is largely how strong this feature will develop, and what track it will be as it moves up along the coast and into the panhandle. Some model guidance is hinting towards elevated winds and periods of higher gusts along the southern coast of PoW, including Hydaburg, and for Annette Island, as well as elevated winds into Clarence Strait itself as the low passes closely along the west coast of PoW. However, the lack of agreement on the path and strength of this meso low gives uncertainty on how high these winds will get, as well as if instead the elevated winds will be further northward and impact more along the central panhandle. It is currently expected that the southern coastline may see a period of gusts up to 40 mph Sunday, or higher if the solution with higher winds pans out. There is higher confidence in the southern panhandle, including PoW and Ketchikan, seeing moderate rain rates with some periods of heavy rain on Sunday, with between 1 and 2 inches expected in 24 hours.

This wetter and more active pattern is expected to continue into early next week as, with the next system beginning to develop and move into the Gulf and impact the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday.

Aviation

THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY OR 4 PM SATURDAY.

We continue to watch a front and associated band of lower clouds and rain pushing east across the central GulfAK this afternoon, with winds increasing ahead of the front from the southeast. Initial impacts to aviation will be in the northern Panhandle around Yakutat starting late tonight when the main band of rain and lower ceilings (down to MVFR) move across, and we see LLWS increase from 40-50 kt from the SE starting around 06Z. The band of rain, lower ceilings, and increased winds will work gradually east into the northern half of the Alaska Panhandle late morning into the afternoon (18Z-21Z) with ceilings and visibilities dropping to MVFR for Sitka, Gustavus, Juneau, Haines and Skagway progressively. We also bring in some LLWS for Sitka (35-45 kt starting around 18Z from the SE). We keep the rest of the central/southern AK Panhandle at VFR. Down there we should see high clouds, then mid and lower clouds above 4000 ft AGL move in ahead of the front into the morning, and even if the clouds are later getting in we will likely frost out anyway with the boundary layer remaining decoupled: so we held off on any fog down south.

Marine

Outside Waters: A strong front continues to move eastward over the Gulf of Alaska through Saturday. Winds will remain elevated, primarily south to southeast gale force ahead of and along the front. However, winds over Icy Cape to Cape Suckling are expected to reach storm force from late this evening and into tonight. Once the front moves through winds will be become westerly and will drop down to small craft advisory level. Combined seas along the front will be 15-20 ft, after the frontal passage seas will ease to 10-15ft.

The aforementioned front will stall out over the AK Panhandle Saturday. A mesolow forming over the NE Pacific will move through the southeastern portion of the Gulf Sunday resulting in another round of increased winds (gale force) and subsequently seas (15-18ft).

Looking ahead into next week, the next frontal system will begin moving into the area late Monday and into Tuesday.

Inside Waters: Winds over the inside waters will begin to increase ahead of a front late tonight and will remain elevated through Saturday. The front will stall out over Panhandle/Inside Waters and winds will slowly ease from the N/NW Saturday night and into Sunday morning. A mesolow that moves through Sunday will bring an extra push of winds (gales) to the southern inside waters.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PUBLIC: Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ317. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to noon AKDT Sunday for AKZ317. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 9 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ318. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon AKDT Sunday for AKZ328. MARINE: Storm Warning for PKZ652. Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.