Oak Harbor, WA 98277 Weather

Synopsis

The low center off Vancouver Island will continue meandering south through Friday afternoon. As it weakens and moves inland on Saturday south of the area, conditions will begin to dry out. An upper level ridge will build on Sunday into early next week. Weak systems may arrive again by Wednesday.

Short term

Showers are moving inland throughout this afternoon as the center of the offshore low very slowly makes its way south. Some of these showers will produce more moderate rainfall, and it's still somewhat unstable, so there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms through this afternoon. Minimum temperatures will also be decreasing through Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the lowlands of Lewis and southern Thurston counties as overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 20s to around 32 degrees. There is a chance that the middle Chehalis river valley may also need a freeze headline as lows there are approaching the upper 20s. Crops and sensitive vegetation may die as a result of temperatures that low, so take the proper precautions to protect things like that if needed.

Saturday will be partly sunny and drier, with no precipitation expected for any of the festivities taking place around the region. Highs will be in the mid 50s.

Long term

Weak ridging will be building in on Sunday, carrying through to the middle of the week. A series of weak systems will make it to the area through the end of the week but at this point are unlikely to create more than increased cloud cover. Precipitation is not expected to be significant if it occurs. Conditions will be fairly homogeneous through the week with periods of clouds and highs in the mid 50s.

The period of Nov 6 through 12 could feature a return to wetter conditions, but this will continue to be evaluated as it gets closer.

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Aviation

Upper level troughing will continue over western washington through this afternoon, with spotty showers around the area. Mostly VFR conditions this afternoon with localized MVFR ceilings, especially along the coast and areas along the Southwest Interior. VFR conditions should continue throughout the evening and into the overnight. Guidance continues to suggest MVFR ceilings Friday morning across much of the area, with a continuation of scattered showers around Puget Sound. Southeasterly winds 3 to 6 knots this afternoon turning more northeasterly after 00z.

KSEA: VFR conditions this afternoon with showers in and around the terminal. Conditions will remain VFR throughout the evening. S/SE winds 3 to 6 knots this afternoon briefly turning N around 00z and transitioning to more a more NE direction into the overnight hours, with speeds generally remaining light. Latest guidance suggests ceilings lowering to MVFR Friday morning with scattered showers near the terminal.

Mazurkiewicz

Marine

Low pressure meandering in the offshore waters will continue offshore low across the waters into the weekend. There will be a weak disturbance that will cross over the area waters on Friday that will bring an uptick in winds over the coastal waters, but at this time it is just below Small Craft Advisory criteria, generally around 15 to 20 kts.

Marine conditions over the weekend and into the first half of next week generally look benign with light winds over the waters.

Coastal seas 4 to 6 feet this evening. Seas will continue to decrease into the weekend, generally 3 to 5 feet. Seas look to build early next week to around 10 feet with a long period swell in the coastal waters.

Mazurkiewicz

Watches, warnings and advisories

WA: Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties.

PZ: None.