Merrill, OR 97633 Weather

Key messages

* Cool temperatures and very slight chances for activity (limited to Coos and Douglas counties) continue through the rest of the week.

* Precipitation chances are trending upward on Saturday afternoon evening, although overall chances remain slight to moderate (10-60%). Forecast amounts are light. Snow showers would be possible east of the Cascades, but not enough to bring significant accumulation.

* Activity eases on Sunday, with a warming trend on Monday into midweek. Model guidance diverges beyond next Wednesday.

Discussion

North-to-northwest flow around a low pressure system drifting past Vancouver Island will keep cool temperatures and periods of cloudy skies in the forecast through the rest of the week and some portion of the weekend. This system keeps enough distance from the area to limit slight shower chances (5-15%) to Coos and Douglas counties through the rest of the week.

Over the weekend, current imagery shows the low weakening and its energy dropping south into a trough that would pass over the area. In this outcome, rain showers are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening. Current chances remain slight to moderate at most, with 20- 40% chances west of the Cascades and 40-60% chances to the east. Forecast precipitation is measured in the hundreths for lower elevation areas. With cold air lingering east of the Cascades, a few stray snow showers are possible but there would not be significant accumulation. The behavior of this trough may impact holiday clothing decisions so stay tuned!

Additionally, this trough may cool overnight lows in the Umpqua Valley enough to bring frost/freeze concerns. Current forecasting borders product thresholds and a better understanding of this trough's behavior as well as expected cloud cover will help to guide issuance decisions.

Activity would ease on early Sunday morning as the trough pushes east with an upper ridge building behind it and guiding the weather to start next week. This feature would warm temperatures through at least midweek, with daytime highs reaching 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. The coast could see daytime highs in the low 60s while west side valleys could reach the mid to high 60s. Farther east, daytime highs are in the mid to high 50s. While some guidance is still showing 10-20% precipitation chances on Monday or Tuesday, there's currently nothing in ensemble imagery to support these chances.

Beyond Wednesday, there's some divergence in model behavior. In general, active weather looks to return towards the end of the week. The timing and behavior varies in long-term guidance, but with deterministic imagery showing activity approaching from the west or southwest winter behavior would not be a concern. -TAD

Aviation

28/18Z TAFs: Westerly flow aloft is keeping MFR to IFR levels at the coast, with VFR ceilings over inland areas west of the Cascades. For inland areas west of the Cascades, VFR ceilings are present. Scattered showers are moving over Coos and Douglas counties, bringing possible locally lower ceilings and visibilities. Both North Bend and Roseburg terminals have seen periods of these showers. To the east of the Cascades, low-elevation freezing fog lingers in parts of southern Lake and Klamath counties. Satellite imagery shows this fog starting to clear, with VFR levels expected east of the Cascades early this afternoon.

VFR levels look to persist through the rest of the TAF period, with chances for lower levels returning to the coast and east side valleys and basins tonight into early Thursday morning. -TAD

Marine

Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 28, 2026: Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the week. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength. A series of seasonably weak disturbances will produce the strongest northwest winds in the Washington and northern Oregon offshore waters, which will push fresh north-northwest swell into the southern Oregon waters. This swell, combined with a lower west-northwest swell, will persist through the week, gradually lowering Thursday into Friday. The outlook is for a long period west-northwest swell to build from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to 6-9 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon.

Beach hazards

Mid-range guidance is showing a long period WNW swell building in over the weekend and persisting into early next week. Early projections show the swell arriving Sunday afternoon at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will then have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 6-9 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon, so the sneaker wave risk continues then. Periods drop below 15 seconds Monday night, and the risk well lessen.

Watches, warnings and advisories

OR: None.

CA: None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS: None.