Big Bear Lake, CA 92333 Weather

Synopsis

Scattered, mostly light showers will continue for the coast and valleys onto the coastal slopes of the mountains into this morning with more widely scattered showers possible at times for this afternoon into Saturday morning. More widespread showers will return Saturday afternoon or evening with showers possibly becoming heavy at times for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Showers are expected to decrease on Sunday afternoon and end by Monday morning. Dry and warmer for Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures warming to around average on Tuesday. Around 5 degrees cooler for Wednesday and Thursday with a chance of showers.

Discussion

FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE: SAN DIEGO: WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES:

: UPDATED AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES DISCUSSION:

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): Scattered showers across the coast and valleys onto the coastal slopes of the mountains have mostly produced 0.10 inch or less of rainfall for Thursday evening through 2 AM today with isolated totals to 0.25 to 0.35 inch.

Scattered, mostly light showers will continue for the coast and valleys onto the coastal slopes of the mountains into this morning with more widely scattered showers possible at times for this afternoon into Saturday with additional rainfall mostly 0.10 inch to locally 0.25 inch into Saturday morning.

More widespread showers will return Saturday afternoon or evening with showers possibly becoming heavy at times for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Showers are expected to decrease on Sunday afternoon and end by Monday morning.

For Saturday morning through Sunday night from the coast to the mountains, the chance for 0.10 inch or more of rainfall is mostly 80 to 90 percent.

For Saturday morning through Sunday night from the coast to the mountains, the chance for 1 inch or more of rainfall ranges from 30 percent for eastern Los Angeles County to 65 to 70 percent for southern San Diego County.

For Saturday morning through Sunday night from the coast to the mountains, the chance for 2 inches or more of rainfall ranges from 10 percent for Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties to 35 to 45 percent over far southern San Diego County.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday): Dry and warmer for Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures on Tuesday warming to around average. High temperatures on Tuesday for the coast and valleys will be mostly in the 70s, for the mountains in the mid 40s to mid 60s, and in the lower deserts around 80.

Around 5 degrees cooler for Wednesday and Thursday with a chance of showers as a pair of low pressure systems move inland into California.

Aviation

301730Z: Multiple cloud layers across the coastal basin with the lowest layer around 1500 ft and the highest layer above 10000 ft MSL. ISO-SCT -SHRA is expected this afternoon for the coastal basin with highest coverage in Orange County. Coverage of BKN low clouds based near 3000-4500 ft MSL increases again after 00z Sat, particularly for coastal areas. ISO -SHRA becomes more confined to coastal areas by late Friday evening. Where -SHRA develops, cigs will likely fall to around 2500 ft. Cigs look unlikely to fall below 2000 ft overnight into Sat AM. -SHRA tapers off Sat AM, with more widespread SHRA Sat afternoon and evening.

Desert Mountain Slopes/Deserts: High clouds with bases AOA 10000 ft MSL will continue into Sat AM. Southwest to west winds will increase after 00Z Sat with peak gusts 30-45 kt, decreasing around 14Z Sat.

Marine

Westerly winds will increase Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but strongest wind gusts will likely stay below 21 kt. There is a 5% chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday morning.

Beaches

High tide today is expected to peak around 7.1 feet around noon which could produce minor coastal flooding in areas where surf is exceeding 3 ft.

The southwesterly swell (3 ft at 15 seconds from 200 degrees) responsible for the marginally elevated surf through the weekend will persist into Monday. Surf up to 6 feet is possible Sunday/Monday. While high tides will continue to wane into the weekend, tides will remain just above 6 feet which could still lead to minor tidal overflow during high tides if breaking waves approach 5-6 feet.

Reported forecast tides have been corrected up by 1.3 ft based on recent trends in tidal observations.

Skywarn

Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CA: Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ: None.