Commerce, CA 90040 Weather

Synopsis

30/248 AM.

Rain chances continue through much of the weekend, with the peak of the rain likely occuring Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Warmer and drier conditions expected next week.

Short term (tdy-sun)

30/355 AM.

No major changes to the forecast through the weekend. This has been a challenging system to get a hold of and even more challenging to describe. At this hour (3am) a small area of rain developed just south of Santa Barbara and dropped around a tenth of an inch in about 10 minutes, with the peak intensity at 0.70" per hour. There have been scattered showers elsewhere but generally on the light side.

Expecting this same overall pattern to continue through Saturday afternoon before the main part of the storm moves into the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning. During that period rain should be more steady but generally under a quarter inch per hour and mostly lower than that. Most of the high res models are indicating chances for half inch per hour rates to be 10% or less. And overall rain totals are expected to be higher in LA County and lowest across the northern counties. This is not expected to be a very convective system but can't completely rule out a isolated storm or two, again better chances south.

Showers expected to taper off Sunday morning with most of the rain out of the area by Sunday afternoon.

Long term (mon-thu)

30/412 AM.

Dry and warmer weather expected early next week as a weak high pressure system moves over the area. Some of the models are indicating a Santa Ana pattern but most favor light offshore at most with highs near climatology. Predictability drops off quite a bit mid to late week as models show another upper low over the West but with a lot of uncertainty with the track. Additional rain next week is very unlikely but a cooling trend towards the end of the week seems likely.

Aviation

30/0559Z.

At 0557Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer to 5500 feet. marine layer was 5000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 8000 ft with a temperature of 10 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD & KWJF.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs with VFR cigs for remaining sites, with infrequent periods of 020-030 MVFR cigs. Additionally, there is 10-25% chance of -DZ or -SHRA from late tonight through the TAF period.

KLAX: Moderate to high confidence in TAF. VFR cigs likely with infrequent periods of BKN020-030 cigs. 15-25% chance of -DZ or -SHRA from around 30/06Z through the period. Any east wind component is expected to remain under 8 kt.

KBUR: Moderate to high confidence in TAF. VFR cigs likely with infrequent periods of BKN020-030 cigs. 10-20% chance of -DZ or -SHRA from around 30/06Z through the period. No wind issues expected.

Marine

29/921 PM.

Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Saturday. Light rain is expected now through Friday. A low pressure system will bring more moderate to potentially locally heavy showers Saturday into Sunday morning. Sunday, there is a 60% chance for widespread northwest SCA winds for the outer waters, and a 50% chance for SCA winds through the inner waters, including the Santa Barbara Channel and inner waters south of Point Mugu.

Beaches

29/915 PM.

Very high tides between 7.2 and 7.5 feet (roughly 1.0-1.4 feet above astronomical predictions) are expected during the morning hours through Friday over all coastal areas, with the highest towards Los Angeles County.

Minor coastal flooding is likely purely based on the high tides. Similar extreme tides in the past tell us that coastal communities should expect shallow flooding of harbor walkways, beach parking lots and bike paths. With swells and surf on the lower-end during these extreme tides (2-4 feet), the threat of more moderate impacts should be limited to the most vulnerable areas. With all of these considerations, Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect through Friday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CA: Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 87-340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ: NONE.