Conchas Dam, NM 88439 Weather

: New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Widespread light to moderate showers will continue to spread east across central NM and portions of eastern NM through this morning.

- Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for localized flooding from persistent rainfall. River rises are expected across northern and western NM and there is a moderate to high chance for river flooding.

- There is a low chance that severe thunderstorms will develop across eastern NM Sunday night, bringing a threat for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Short term

(Today through Monday) Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Happy Halloween! A band of showers stretching from north central NM to the Central Highlands will continue to shift eastward this morning, but will gradually lose steam east of the Central Mountain Chain. Much of the precipitation will diminish before reaching the eastern plains. Some of the highest elevations of the northern mountain may pick up a dusting to half inch of snow. Patchy fog has already been noted across portions of eastern NM along with widespread low clouds. Patchy low clouds will also develop behind the band of precipitation this morning. However, by this afternoon, much quieter conditions are expected. Isolated, brief showers can't be ruled out in the afternoon, but overall it should be a pleasant afternoon and evening, perfect for trick-or- treating. 6 to 7PM temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common, with cooler temperatures in the northern mountains.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate after midnight tonight across western NM. We continue to watch a Pacific low off the coast of the northern Baja and a northern stream low approach the Desert Southwest. Though the systems don't quite phase, they will nonetheless have impacts on NM. Abundant moisture will stream into NM ahead of the southern stream low starting early Sunday morning. PWATs quickly climb to near one inch, or 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal for much of the area. It is a near certainty that daily PWAT records will be broken at KABQ. Precipitation will quickly spread across western NM prior to sunrise Sunday. Precipitation will be orographically focused through midday until the front associated with the southern stream trough slides eastward across western NM Sunday afternoon. At which time, precipitation amounts will be higher, given the additional forcing. Watch for a band of higher precipitation rates along the front which will move into the Rio Grande Valley early Sunday evening. Once the front reaches the Rio Grande Valley and points eastward, it will find more instability to work with. So while there will have been little in the way of thunderstorms across western NM, thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible along the front as it shifts eastward across eastern NM Sunday night. MUCAPE values from the RRFS/REFS are around 800-1400 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear values between 50 and 70kt, with these values being highest across eastern NM. Best chances for severe weather now appears to be between 7pm Sunday night through 2am Monday morning. All hazards remain possible, though damaging wind gusts are the greatest threat. However, a QLCS-type tornado threat cannot be ruled out. Given this will be a nighttime severe threat, folks should prepare now to have multiple ways to receive warnings.

While the severe threat is ongoing Sunday night, orographic lift will persist across western NM allowing rain to continue over the high terrain. The northern low will then shift over the Four Corners early Monday morning. Ascent ahead of low combined with an stronger cold front should allow for another band of showers to develop over northwest NM early Monday morning which will shift toward the Central Mountain Chain by mid day. Cold air advection will be much stronger with this front allowing snow levels to fall from 11-12kft to 7500ft-9kft. One to 4 inches of snow remains expected above 9000 feet across the northern mountains. Additionally, winds behind this front will be much stronger than the winds behind the initial front on Sunday. Wind Advisories may be needed for Monday along and just east of the Central Mtn Chain, but windy conditions will be felt across much of western NM as well. Areas from KLVS to KCQC to KSRR could see gusts near 50 mph, while gusts between 30-45 mph will be common elsewhere. The wind will make the cooler temperatures feel much cooler.

The precipitation will diminish across western NM and become focused across northeast NM Monday afternoon behind the backdoor segment of the cold front. Rain will be the dominant precipitation type across northeast NM, but a rain/snow mix can't be ruled out over Raton Pass.

The Flood Watch remains in effect for western NM including the Tusas and Jemez Mountains. Between 1 and 2 inches of liquid precipitation will be common, but upslope favored location in the Tusas and San Juan Mountains of CO could see more than 3 inches of rainfall. Concern continues for river rises and potential flooding in areas still recovering from the last flood event. Any flooding that occurs will be less likely to be "flashy" but conditions will just gradually get worse the longer it rains.

Long term

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

As the upper low pulls away from NM, precipitation will wane across NE NM Monday night. Winds will also decrease through the evening, except across NE NM where gusty northerly winds will persist.

Quieter conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday as ridging initially moves overhead Tuesday before becoming more zonal Wed into Thur. Considerable uncertainty exists for Friday. Another storm system may be in the offing, but models are very inconsistent regarding strength and timing of the system.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A band of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will continue to shift eastward across the central third of the state through approximately 12-15Z Saturday morning. MVFR vsbys in rain are expected as well as mountain obscurations. After the rain ends, low clouds (MVFR to IFR cigs) may develop around KSAF and KAEG as well as spotty locations across western NM. Meanwhile, MVFR to LIFR cigs will persist across much of eastern NM through the morning hours, including at KROW. Conditions will improve Saturday afternoon with VFR prevailing by 00Z Sunday.

Fire weather

Issued at 200 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7 days. Showers will continue this morning before diminishing this afternoon across central and eastern NM. Then, a significant moisture intrusion is expected Sunday through Monday. Widespread rain and high elevation snow is expected across central and western NM, while severe thunderstorms will be possible across eastern NM Sunday night. The system will also bring gusty southwest winds on Sunday, with gusts between 25 and 35 mph common, though may be slightly stronger across far northeast NM. Winds will be stronger on Monday from the west and northwest with gusts up to 50 mph. Quieter conditions expected for the mid week period.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Farmington::::::: . 62 48 61 45 / 5 70 100 100 Dulce::::::::: 58 40 56 41 / 20 50 100 100 Cuba::::::::: . 59 44 58 42 / 10 60 100 100 Gallup:::::::: .. 61 47 59 43 / 10 90 100 100 El Morro:::::::: 60 44 60 40 / 5 90 100 100 Grants:::::::: .. 62 45 60 44 / 5 90 90 100 Quemado:::::::: . 62 46 62 43 / 5 60 80 100 Magdalena::::::: .. 63 49 65 45 / 5 30 40 90 Datil::::::::: 60 45 62 43 / 5 50 50 100 Reserve:::::::: . 64 48 63 45 / 10 80 100 100 Glenwood:::::::: 68 53 68 48 / 20 70 100 100 Chama::::::::: 52 36 52 37 / 30 30 100 100 Los Alamos::::::: . 57 45 57 43 / 20 60 100 100 Pecos::::::::: 59 42 61 42 / 20 10 80 100 Cerro/Questa:::::: .. 56 38 56 40 / 30 5 90 100 Red River::::::: .. 48 33 50 35 / 40 5 90 100 Angel Fire::::::: . 54 29 55 31 / 40 5 60 100 Taos::::::::: . 61 38 59 42 / 30 5 90 100 Mora::::::::: . 59 40 60 43 / 20 0 50 90 Espanola:::::::: 64 46 65 46 / 20 30 90 100 Santa Fe:::::::: 60 44 60 45 / 20 20 80 100 Santa Fe Airport::::: . 62 45 62 46 / 10 30 80 100 Albuquerque Foothills::: .. 62 48 66 48 / 10 40 70 100 Albuquerque Heights:::: . 63 50 67 49 / 5 40 60 100 Albuquerque Valley:::: .. 65 51 69 50 / 5 40 50 100 Albuquerque West Mesa::: .. 64 49 67 49 / 10 50 70 100 Belen::::::::: 70 53 72 49 / 5 30 30 90 Bernalillo::::::: . 65 49 68 49 / 10 50 80 100 Bosque Farms:::::: .. 67 52 70 49 / 5 40 40 100 Corrales:::::::: 65 49 68 49 / 10 50 70 100 Los Lunas::::::: .. 68 52 71 48 / 10 40 40 100 Placitas:::::::: 62 47 65 48 / 10 50 80 100 Rio Rancho::::::: . 66 51 68 48 / 10 50 80 100 Socorro:::::::: . 68 52 71 50 / 5 20 30 90 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest::: 60 46 63 43 / 10 40 70 100 Tijeras:::::::: . 61 48 64 45 / 10 40 60 100 Edgewood:::::::: 62 45 64 46 / 10 30 50 100 Moriarty/Estancia::::: 65 43 65 50 / 10 20 40 100 Clines Corners:::::: 61 44 61 44 / 10 10 30 100 Mountainair::::::: 63 47 65 45 / 20 20 30 100 Gran Quivira:::::: .. 61 47 64 46 / 30 5 30 100 Carrizozo::::::: .. 63 50 69 50 / 20 0 10 100 Ruidoso:::::::: . 60 47 66 46 / 20 5 10 100 Capulin:::::::: . 62 42 62 47 / 10 0 10 70 Raton::::::::: 67 39 66 46 / 5 5 10 70 Springer:::::::: 67 41 67 48 / 10 0 10 70 Las Vegas::::::: .. 62 41 62 45 / 10 5 50 100 Clayton:::::::: . 66 48 68 53 / 5 0 5 60 Roy::::::::: .. 65 45 65 49 / 10 0 30 80 Conchas:::::::: . 71 51 72 55 / 5 0 20 70 Santa Rosa::::::: . 70 50 70 53 / 10 5 10 70 Tucumcari::::::: .. 70 52 75 56 / 5 0 10 70 Clovis:::::::: .. 66 50 70 54 / 10 0 0 60 Portales:::::::: 70 53 74 59 / 10 0 5 50 Fort Sumner::::::: 69 54 71 56 / 5 5 5 70 Roswell:::::::: . 68 52 73 56 / 5 0 0 10 Picacho:::::::: . 69 51 74 54 / 10 5 0 40 Elk::::::::: .. 66 49 71 51 / 10 0 0 50

Watches, warnings and advisories

Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for NMZ201>211.