Mesilla, NM 88046 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION:

Key messages: Updated at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into late tonight. Some of these storms will produce heavy rainfall and local flooding, with another round of thunderstorms spreading in from the west later Friday.

- A quiet period looks to arrive in time for Halloween, Saturday.

- A upper level system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

- Quieter and drier weather looks to prevail after Monday.

Discussion

Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Tropical moisture continues over much of the CWA this evening (00Z KEPZ sounding still has 1.01 inches of PW). Expect a few showers and thunderstorms to continue overnight. Hi-res models have been very inconsistent, but latest HRRR/FV3 show one last batch of rain/storms from about the Cont Divide east and drifting east, mostly done by around 12Z-14Z: perhaps driven by a short wave just south of the NM Bootheel.

Our next weather system is currently organizing just west of the Baja as a strong sub-tropical jet pushes moisture into the area Friday. GFS/ECMWF have been pretty consistent, moving the upper trough to eastern Arizona Friday afternoon. This will begin spreading showers/thunderstorms to the western CWA, with the rain spreading east over most of the remainder of the CWA by around midnight. PWs still hang around one inch so flooding will still be a threat for the last half of Friday. Mid-level winds do pick up as the upper jet approaches so storms should move faster. Daytime CAPES of up to 500 J/kg along with some shear suggest some strong/severe storms possible. Models showing rain should be done late Saturday morning/mid-day, just in time for a dry trick-or-treat evening.

Finally, the main upper trough and frontal system will sweep in Sunday. Once again, showers/thunderstorms will develop west of Deming in the afternoon and rapidly spread east by late evening/early Monday morning. This may be more typical Fall, low energy, fast moving type showers as very little instability develops and strong mid-level winds should speed the showers through. Surface cold front sweeps through El Paso early evening and showers should end shortly after fropa. A few showers could linger far east to around noon Monday. Warm temperatures of Sunday will fall back below normal Monday and Tuesday. The good news is a drying trend is in store through Thursday, before another possible round of showers next Friday.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

SCT-BKN080 BKN150 BKN250 with scattered BKN-OVC050CB 5-7SM SHRA/-TSRA from about Deming east. These showers will end from the west through the night by around 12Z. A few showers/thunderstorms possible over the Sacrament Mtns after 18Z: otherwise thunderstorms developing west of Deming after 22Z and spreading to the RG Valley by end of period.

Fire weather

Issued at 929 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Plentiful moisture over the next several days will keep fire weather conditions low as continuous rounds of rain blanket the region. Thursday's min RHs will be in the 30s out west and increasing to the 50s out east before increasing to the at least the 50s area wide on Friday (some lowland areas may be in the upper 40s). Min RHs will be above 30% across the area through Monday. Ventilation rates will fall from Fair on Thursday to Poor on Friday as low-level winds subside. Ventilation rates improve over the weekend.

Preliminary point temps/pops

El Paso 58 71 58 73 / 60 20 70 10 Sierra Blanca 52 69 53 72 / 60 20 30 10 Las Cruces 54 71 53 72 / 50 0 70 0 Alamogordo 51 71 52 71 / 60 20 70 10 Cloudcroft 39 53 40 53 / 70 30 80 10 Truth or Consequences 53 71 53 71 / 60 0 70 20 Silver City 49 67 48 66 / 30 10 90 20 Deming 53 73 52 72 / 40 0 70 10 Lordsburg 52 73 51 71 / 50 20 80 10 West El Paso Metro 60 71 60 73 / 70 20 70 10 Dell City 56 72 56 73 / 60 20 50 10 Fort Hancock 59 77 60 80 / 50 20 40 10 Loma Linda 52 65 53 67 / 60 20 60 0 Fabens 58 74 59 76 / 60 20 60 0 Santa Teresa 57 70 56 72 / 70 10 70 10 White Sands HQ 57 71 57 72 / 60 10 70 10 Jornada Range 52 71 52 71 / 60 10 70 10 Hatch 55 75 54 75 / 60 0 70 10 Columbus 56 74 56 75 / 40 0 70 10 Orogrande 52 70 52 71 / 70 20 70 10 Mayhill 45 62 45 65 / 90 50 70 10 Mescalero 44 64 45 63 / 70 30 70 20 Timberon 42 61 42 61 / 70 30 80 10 Winston 44 66 44 65 / 50 20 80 10 Hillsboro 52 71 50 71 / 50 0 80 20 Spaceport 51 71 50 70 / 60 10 70 20 Lake Roberts 43 68 44 66 / 30 10 90 20 Hurley 48 69 47 68 / 30 10 90 20 Cliff 48 74 49 71 / 30 20 90 20 Mule Creek 44 69 45 67 / 30 30 90 20 Faywood 50 68 50 67 / 40 10 80 20 Animas 53 74 53 73 / 40 20 80 10 Hachita 52 72 52 72 / 60 10 80 10 Antelope Wells 52 73 53 73 / 50 10 70 20 Cloverdale 50 69 52 68 / 30 30 80 20

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

NM: Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.