Butterfield Park, NM 88011 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages: Updated at 508 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into late tonight. Some of these storms will produce heavy rainfall and local flooding.

- A quiet period looks to arrive in time for Halloween, Saturday.

- A upper level system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday and into Monday.

- Quieter and drier weather looks to prevail next week.

Discussion

Issued at 929 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Persistent southwest flow aloft ahead of the upper-level low in the Pacific, along with the help of several shortwaves rotating east toward New Mexico ahead of this low, will advect substantial subtropical moisture (some of which is from Tropical Storm Vance) from Chihuahua into the region this afternoon, starting out east before becoming area- wide this evening. PWs approach 1" in the eastern Rio Grande Valley, and this moisture, as well as decent instability and slow storm motion, could lead to some flooding. These showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours.

After a lull in the rain Friday morning, a shortwave will arrive in western New Mexico in the early afternoon hours, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area from the west to the east. Storms are not expected to form until later in the afternoon on Friday, though an improved shear environment compared to Thursday could be conducive to some strong thunderstorms, especially out west. These storms will persist into the overnight hours on Saturday.

Halloween looks to be a treat weather-wise as the shortwave exits our region, keeping the CWA dry. The Pacific low makes its arrival on Sunday, and with it another chance of flooding rains. It looks to be a fast-moving system, though the ECMWF has it be somewhat slower than the GFS. PWs approach 1" again, though fast mid-level storm motion winds up to 50 mph may not allow for prolonged rain over any specific area. A cold front moves through late Sunday night, bringing temperatures for the start of November to be slightly below average.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

SCT-BKN080 BKN150 BKN250 with scattered BKN-OVC050CB 3-5SM TSRA. Some storms will produce moderate size hail and wind gusts to 35 knots. Storms becoming more isolated after 07Z. All TAF sites have chances of thunderstorms throughout this evening. Will use high resolution models for timing.

Fire weather

Issued at 929 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Plentiful moisture over the next several days will keep fire weather conditions low as continuous rounds of rain blanket the region. Thursday's min RHs will be in the 30s out west and increasing to the 50s out east before increasing to the at least the 50s area wide on Friday (some lowland areas may be in the upper 40s). Min RHs will be above 30% across the area through Monday. Ventilation rates will fall from Fair on Thursday to Poor on Friday as low-level winds subside. Ventilation rates improve over the weekend.

Preliminary point temps/pops

El Paso 58 72 58 74 / 60 0 50 10 Sierra Blanca 52 69 52 73 / 80 10 20 10 Las Cruces 54 70 53 71 / 70 0 60 10 Alamogordo 52 70 52 71 / 70 20 60 30 Cloudcroft 39 50 39 51 / 70 30 60 30 Truth or Consequences 53 71 53 71 / 80 10 60 10 Silver City 49 67 48 66 / 50 10 80 10 Deming 53 72 52 73 / 70 0 60 10 Lordsburg 52 72 52 72 / 30 20 70 0 West El Paso Metro 60 71 60 74 / 60 0 50 0 Dell City 56 72 54 74 / 70 20 30 10 Fort Hancock 59 77 59 81 / 70 10 30 10 Loma Linda 52 65 52 68 / 60 10 50 10 Fabens 58 74 58 77 / 60 10 40 0 Santa Teresa 57 70 56 72 / 60 0 50 0 White Sands HQ 57 72 57 73 / 70 10 60 10 Jornada Range 54 71 54 71 / 70 10 60 10 Hatch 55 75 54 75 / 80 0 60 10 Columbus 56 73 56 75 / 50 0 50 0 Orogrande 54 70 53 71 / 60 10 50 10 Mayhill 45 61 45 64 / 70 30 50 20 Mescalero 44 62 44 62 / 70 30 70 30 Timberon 42 59 41 60 / 70 20 50 30 Winston 44 65 45 65 / 60 20 70 10 Hillsboro 52 71 51 72 / 80 10 70 10 Spaceport 53 71 52 71 / 80 10 70 10 Lake Roberts 44 66 44 66 / 40 20 80 10 Hurley 48 69 47 69 / 60 10 80 10 Cliff 50 74 52 72 / 40 20 90 10 Mule Creek 47 69 49 67 / 20 20 90 10 Faywood 50 68 50 67 / 70 10 70 10 Animas 53 73 53 73 / 30 20 60 0 Hachita 52 72 52 73 / 50 10 60 0 Antelope Wells 52 73 52 75 / 40 10 40 0 Cloverdale 50 68 51 68 / 20 20 70 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: Flood Watch through late tonight for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

NM: Flood Watch through late tonight for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.