Costilla, NM 87524 Weather

: New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over southern NM this afternoon, shifting to southeast and eastern NM tonight into early Friday.

- Confidence continues to increase that a Pacific storm system will bring impactful rainfall across western NM and the Four Corners region late this weekend into early next week.

- There is a low chance for additional river flooding across northwest NM late Sunday into Monday associated with rainfall runoff from the Pacific storm system.

Short term

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Moisture advection is underway ahead of a shortwave trough, currently moving northeast across northern MX per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. PWATs are forecast to rise to well above the 90th percentile across eastern NM through Friday. There is likely a component of remnant tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Vance in the advection-mix, but that tap isn't as obvious in the water vapor imagery. Daytime heating initiated convection is currently underway in the South Central Mountains, on the front end of the advection, where a Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect and mainly for burn scar considerations. Showers and storms are forecast to impact southern portions of our area this evening with continued moisture advection and forcing from the approaching shortwave trough. Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2" are possible with this activity later this afternoon and evening, especially in Chaves County. As instability wanes overnight, a transition to showers and areas of stratiform rain is forecast, focusing across eastern NM as the shortwave trough nears. Precipitation will persist for much of the day Friday across eastern NM, especially near the TX border, before the shortwave trough exits to the east. Low stratus and areas of fog will likely develop late Friday night across eastern NM due to a saturated lower boundary layer and some drying aloft providing a favorable moisture profile.

Long term

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A 2nd shortwave trough will move across northern NM Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing another round of showers. Moisture advection will ramp back up Saturday night into Sunday in advance of an approaching upper level trough/low, forecast to move across NM on Monday. This 3rd wave will be the most significant, steering Pacific moisture and anomalously high PWATs over the region along with jet dynamics and strong orographic forcing. Precipitation for the Sun/Mon event will favor western NM and especially the peaks and higher west and southwest facing slopes. There is some flood potential across northwest NM Sun/Mon, but this event will be a different type of event compared to last week with a strong lean toward orographic forcing. Flash flooding is still possible, but will take longer to create problems given lower rainfall rates and will favor river flooding over flash flooding. This is especially true given potential flows coming down the La Plata and Animas rivers out of southeast CO due to significant qpf for the San Juan Mountains, which always perform with strong southwest flow events and a firehose of Pacific moisture. We'll likely be issuing a Flood Watch in the next 24hrs for Sun/Mon, for NW NM at a minimum. Snow levels will start out high with this event, between 11-12Kft, but will come down to 8500-9000ft late Sunday night through Monday as the 560-565dam 500mb low moves southeast across the state. The northern mountains may pick up several inches of snow during the Sunday night through Monday period and come out the backside on Tuesday with a notably white appearance. Strong winds are forecast both ahead of and behind a Pacific cold front Monday. A warming and drying trend will begin Tuesday under the influence of an upper level ridge following behind the departing upper low.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR cigs are stubborn to diminish at KROW, but forecast to improve to VFR by 21Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact KROW this evening with short- lived MVFR conditions. Deterioration is possible in the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace overnight with the onset of showers, but low probabilities at time. Otherwise, the gradual lowering of VFR cigs is forecast through the TAF period with mostly light winds

Fire weather

Issued at 1224 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. Humidity and chances for wetting precipitation will trend up over the next few days as a series of disturbances impact the region, including a strong Pacific low forecast to move across the state on Monday. Lowering snow levels Sunday night into Monday will bring accumulating snow the the peaks of the northern mountains. The Pacific low will also bring strong winds both ahead of and behind a cold front on Monday. A drying and warming trend will follow the departing low from Tuesday through Thursday of next week, with a stable atmosphere providing poor to fair ventilation.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Farmington::::::: . 45 66 47 62 / 10 10 70 20 Dulce::::::::: 35 63 41 57 / 10 10 70 60 Cuba::::::::: . 42 60 42 57 / 10 10 70 30 Gallup:::::::: .. 40 64 42 61 / 10 10 80 10 El Morro:::::::: 41 62 40 60 / 30 20 70 5 Grants:::::::: .. 43 63 43 62 / 20 20 50 5 Quemado:::::::: . 40 63 41 62 / 30 10 70 5 Magdalena::::::: .. 46 62 45 63 / 50 20 50 10 Datil::::::::: 42 61 42 60 / 40 10 50 5 Reserve:::::::: . 41 63 45 65 / 20 20 70 10 Glenwood:::::::: 46 67 48 68 / 20 20 80 10 Chama::::::::: 37 57 39 51 / 10 20 60 70 Los Alamos::::::: . 45 60 45 57 / 20 30 50 40 Pecos::::::::: 41 59 42 59 / 30 30 50 30 Cerro/Questa:::::: .. 41 58 41 55 / 10 30 40 40 Red River::::::: .. 35 51 34 48 / 10 30 30 40 Angel Fire::::::: . 28 56 28 52 / 20 30 30 30 Taos::::::::: . 37 61 38 58 / 10 20 40 30 Mora::::::::: . 38 57 39 58 / 30 40 30 20 Espanola:::::::: 43 65 45 63 / 20 20 50 30 Santa Fe:::::::: 46 61 46 59 / 20 30 50 30 Santa Fe Airport::::: . 45 63 45 61 / 20 20 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills::: .. 52 65 52 64 / 30 20 60 20 Albuquerque Heights:::: . 49 67 49 66 / 30 10 60 10 Albuquerque Valley:::: .. 49 69 50 67 / 30 10 60 10 Albuquerque West Mesa::: .. 50 68 51 65 / 30 10 60 20 Belen::::::::: 50 69 50 68 / 30 10 60 5 Bernalillo::::::: . 48 68 49 66 / 30 10 60 30 Bosque Farms:::::: .. 48 69 48 68 / 30 10 60 10 Corrales:::::::: 49 68 50 66 / 30 10 60 20 Los Lunas::::::: .. 49 69 50 68 / 30 10 60 5 Placitas:::::::: 49 65 50 63 / 30 20 60 30 Rio Rancho::::::: . 50 67 50 65 / 30 10 60 20 Socorro:::::::: . 53 69 52 70 / 50 10 40 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest::: 46 60 45 59 / 30 20 60 30 Tijeras:::::::: . 47 63 46 61 / 30 20 60 30 Edgewood:::::::: 44 62 43 62 / 30 20 50 20 Moriarty/Estancia::::: 43 64 42 64 / 30 20 50 20 Clines Corners:::::: 45 60 43 60 / 40 30 40 20 Mountainair::::::: 45 62 44 62 / 40 20 50 20 Gran Quivira:::::: .. 45 63 45 62 / 40 20 50 20 Carrizozo::::::: .. 50 65 50 64 / 60 20 50 20 Ruidoso:::::::: . 46 59 45 60 / 70 30 50 30 Capulin:::::::: . 44 57 40 60 / 20 30 10 10 Raton::::::::: 43 61 41 63 / 20 30 10 10 Springer:::::::: 43 62 40 65 / 20 20 10 10 Las Vegas::::::: .. 44 59 42 61 / 40 30 30 10 Clayton:::::::: . 50 59 46 65 / 20 50 20 5 Roy::::::::: .. 47 59 43 64 / 50 40 10 10 Conchas:::::::: . 52 61 48 71 / 70 50 20 10 Santa Rosa::::::: . 52 60 48 69 / 70 40 30 5 Tucumcari::::::: .. 51 59 47 70 / 60 70 10 10 Clovis:::::::: .. 53 59 49 69 / 80 90 10 5 Portales:::::::: 52 60 48 70 / 80 90 10 10 Fort Sumner::::::: 52 62 49 70 / 80 60 20 5 Roswell:::::::: . 54 66 51 70 / 80 60 20 5 Picacho:::::::: . 50 65 49 68 / 70 40 40 10 Elk::::::::: .. 48 61 47 67 / 70 30 40 10

Watches, warnings and advisories

Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.