Blackwell, TX 79535 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Heavy rain threat ending. Flood Watch has been cancelled.

- Low to medium chance (20-60 percent) of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Monday night, followed by gusty northwest winds on Tuesday.

- A few of the storms across the northern Big Country Monday afternoon and evening could reach severe levels. LArge hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

Short term

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main upper level shortwave is moving across the area and the rain shield is ending from southwest to northeast across West Central Texas. With the rain ending across the counties that had the Flood Watch in effect, went ahead and cancelled it a few hours early.

Overall, much of West Central Texas saw 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain over the last 36 hours, without rates heavy enough to produce much flooding concerns. Big Country and Heartland south into the Hill Country will see some additional rainfall this afternoon before the it begins to break up into more scattered showers this evening.

Moisture and cloud cover will remain in place into Saturday morning, and with a much weaker secondary shortwave set to moves across the area late tonight into Saturday morning, some scattered showers will remain possible. However, as this wave passes, drier conditions will move into the area for Saturday afternoon. Model blends spit out some spotty low POPs across the area for sAturday afternoon and evening, but went ahead and removed them. Can't rule out a brief sprinkle someplace but the CAMs are not showing much and will go with that idea.

A little warmer on Saturday with maybe a little sunshine by afternoon. Highs climb back into the 70s.

Long term

(Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Upper level ridge briefly moves across the area for Saturday night and Sunday, but will be watching the next potent system for the Plains for Monday and Tuesday. Models are having their struggle with this system, but it appears very dynamic as it tries to close off and move across Oklahoma and North Texas. Still questionable whether any of the main lift with this system will be far enough south to impact West Central Texas, but in any case, it will be surging a cold front through the area. With moisture still in place, this front will have some CAPE to work with and some showers and storms will remain possible. Best rain chances will be across the Heartland and Hill Country Monday Night and Tuesday morning as the front reaches the moisture. CAMs will have a better handle on this event over the weekend, so wont mess with the blend POPs at this point. Of note, SPC does have the northern Big Country in a Day 4 Slight Risk of severe storms for Monday afternoon/evening.

Cold front drops through the area and brings cooler and drier conditions to West Central Texas for mid/end of next week. Lows in the 40s, highs in the 70s.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Expect IFR ceilings at most of terminals tonight through early Saturday afternoon due to abundant boundary layer moisture and light winds. However, keeping the KABI terminal MVFR ceilings, but there is a low-medium chance for a few hours of IFR conditions and will watch for possible amendments this evening. Otherwise, expect scattered light showers, better coverage across the Big Country and patchy fog areawide.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Abilene 57 73 62 79 / 50 20 10 10 San Angelo 55 74 60 79 / 40 20 10 0 Junction 55 74 60 78 / 40 20 10 0 Brownwood 55 73 59 79 / 50 20 10 0 Sweetwater 56 71 62 78 / 40 20 10 0 Ozona 57 72 61 75 / 40 20 10 0 Brady 55 72 60 77 / 40 20 10 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.