Victoria, TX 77988 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Minor coastal flooding likely during high tide through this weekend, with increased risk of rip currents

- Medium rain chances over the Coastal Plains Wednesday, shifts west over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains Thursday

- Lingering low rain chances Friday and Saturday

- Next cold front looks to arrive around Tuesday

Discussion

Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A few showers linger mainly across the inland Coastal Plains and offshore waters. Our sounding this morning at Corpus Christi measured a PWAT value of 2.07", near the daily max (2.24"), an extremely saturated profile. Intermittent light rain and/or drizzle continues across the Coastal Bend due to weak surface convergence. There isn't much mid- level support as this morning's shortwave moves northeast, bringing a lull in rain chances tonight. Another shortwave disturbance will move across the area tomorrow (Wednesday), bringing a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains, with greatest chances over the Victoria Crossroads.

Remnants of current Pacific Tropical Storm Vance will move into Mexico then into South Texas Thursday, focusing the moisture axis closer to the Rio Grande, shifting medium rain chances (30-60%) with it. The remnants will continue to shift northeastward, reducing rain chances to low (~20%) on Friday. A weak shortwave on Saturday could extend into the Victoria Crossroads and pose a low chance for showers and thunderstorms, but overall flow becomes zonal by Saturday night, leading to near zero rain chances for trick or treating.

Rain-free and slightly warmer conditions are expected Sunday and Monday under a ridge, with highs reaching the low 90s over the Brush Country. A very amplified mid-level trough or closed low will move into the Central Great Plains Tuesday, bringing a cold front across South Texas. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with FROPA with 6-hours of each other. We'll need to keep a close eye on this synoptic flow pattern as it has the potential to bring a strong line of storms across parts of Texas, how far south it progresses remains highly uncertain.

Lastly, minor coastal flooding remains likely during high tide in the late afternoon and night hours with water reaching the dunes. In addition, there is an increased risk of rip currents. These hazardous beach conditions are caused by increased swell periods and near astronomical high tide.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Low MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop tonight across majority of South Texas, mainly between 09-14Z but earlier over the northern Rio Grande Plains (COT). There is a low to medium chance of showers Wednesday morning, but greatest focus looks to be over the Victoria Crossroads. PROB30 groups have been included for ALI, CRP, and VCT.

Marine

Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow will persist through Friday, with seas generally between 3-5 feet. Flow becomes weak this weekend before strengthening to moderate out of the southeast on Monday. Low rain chances through tonight will ramp up to medium to high again on Wednesday, then decrease back to low through Saturday.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Corpus Christi 69 84 70 83 / 20 30 20 30 Victoria 63 84 65 83 / 30 50 0 10 Laredo 69 89 71 85 / 10 10 20 50 Alice 66 86 68 82 / 20 30 20 30 Rockport 71 83 72 83 / 40 50 10 20 Cotulla 66 88 69 82 / 10 10 20 50 Kingsville 67 86 69 83 / 10 30 20 30 Navy Corpus 74 82 74 81 / 30 40 20 30

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM: None.