Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Weak shortwaves and decent moisture will bring scattered showers today (best chances west of I-45).

- Slightly drier air briefly moves in from the east on Thursday.

- Rain chances return Friday through the weekend as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through. The best chances of rain will be on Saturday during the day.

Discussion

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Scattered showers are expected today as another weak shortwave moves through the region. Model guidance continues to bring some isentropic lifting across most of the area today, which, combined with upper lvl forcing, will keep showers in the forecast along with isolated thunderstorms possible. Will continue with the best rain chances for areas west of I-45, where higher PW values persist, though it would not be surprising to see some light activity occur further east.

By Thursday, a drier airmass filters in, bringing lower rain chances. An increase in moisture returns Friday and Saturday, with PWs surging back into the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range. High moisture combined with passing shortwaves embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast, with the highest overall chances peaking late Friday into Saturday. Any activity should diminish by early evening. PW values remain somewhat elevated on Sunday; however, PoPs will remain on the light side given a lack of substantial upper-level forcing. The next main weather-maker arrives early next week as a mid-lvl trough/closed low moves across the Plains, dragging a cold front through the area in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Given the current parameters, timing, and evolution of this trough, we will continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe weather ahead of and along the FROPA.

Overall, expect near normal temperatures through the period, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

JM

Aviation

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dense fog ongoing across the Brazos Valley, impacting the CLL terminal, and resulting in LIFR conditions. CXO also at LIFR due to low CIGs. GLS experiencing MVFR CIGs and all other sites are at VFR. Expect conditions at all sites to improve to VFR by around 16Z with VFR prevailing through the rest of the day. Winds will be out of the SE at around 5-10 knots through the day, becoming light and variable during the overnight hours into Thursday.

Bailey

Marine

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Persistent easterly flow will continue through most of the week, leading to occasional moderate onshore winds and seas generally 3 to 4 ft. Occasional higher seas are possible offshore at times. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible daily, as different weak disturbances move through the region. The best chances of rain/storms will be near the Matagorda Bay region and coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Bay Entrance 0-60 nm.

Beach conditions: Isolated/minor coastal flooding remains possible, especially during times of high tide. P-ETSS guidance suggests water levels reaching 3.0 - 3.5 ft MLLW, particularly during times of high tide through the rest of the work week.

JM

Preliminary point temps/pops

College Station (CLL) 84 62 83 63 / 30 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 83 63 84 64 / 20 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 71 78 70 / 20 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ195>197- 210-211.

GM: None.