Texas City, TX 77590 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Rain chances return today and Saturday as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week along and ahead of a cold front.

Discussion

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A parade of mid-level shortwave/vort maxima embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will continue to move north-northeast across central TX tonight. While some drier air persists at the 700:850 hPa layer, a few light/spotty showers will be possible over the Brazos Valley and southwestern counties. PW values will be on the increase from southwest to northeast today and Saturday, with values peaking in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range. Increasing moisture, combined with passing mid-level shortwaves will keep rain chances in the forecast. The best chances remain for areas west of I-45 and south of I-10, mainly in the afternoon due to the combination of peak daytime heating.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in coverage late tonight into Saturday as the enhanced area of increased moisture and vort maxes move overhead and to our northeast. This scattered to widespread activity should gradually diminish by early evening, so the evening trick-or-treating forecast looks rain-free for most areas. A weak mid to upper lvl ridge builds Sunday into Monday, resulting in only slight rain chances and warmer conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A deepening upper trough will move over the western CONUS over the weekend, moving eastward across the Plains on Monday. While the evolution of this system still differs run to run, guidance shows better agreement on the timing of the associated surface cold front. As of the latest analysis, the FROPA is progged to move through on Tuesday, reaching the coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given the high uncertainty in the evolution and phasing of this trough, confidence in specific details regarding any thunderstorm/severe weather potential remains low. Will continue to monitor over the weekend as more hi-res guidance arrives and clearer details emerge with the forecast. Behind the FROPA, drier and slightly cooler conditions will filter in with near-normal temperatures for this time of year.

JM

Aviation

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Light northeasterly to easterly winds early this morning will become predominantly easterly later this morning and into the afternoon with wind speeds generally between 5-10 kt. VFR conditions prevail this morning, but we have seen some isolated to scattered rain showers develop early this morning west of CLL/SGR. Expecting the coverage of showers to increase later this morning and into the afternoon. There may be a brief lull before activity increases overnight into Saturday morning. Can't entirely rule out isolated thunderstorms during this timeframe, but the greatest potential for this looks to be along the coast or offshore.

MVFR ceilings are expected to develop early Saturday morning with the potential for IFR ceilings as well. Visibilities may be reduced in and around showers/storms. Reduced ceilings may linger into early Saturday afternoon as scattered rain showers persist. Another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Batiste

Marine

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow and seas in the 2 to 4 ft range will continue across the Upper TX coast today and Saturday. A few passing disturbances will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with the best chances late tonight into Saturday. Winds will become more southeasterly early next week, before the arrival of the next cold front sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Will continue to monitor conditions next week as elevated winds and building seas will be possible ahead of and along the FROPA. Caution flags or Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

JM

Preliminary point temps/pops

College Station (CLL) 78 63 81 65 / 40 40 40 10 Houston (IAH) 80 67 82 68 / 30 30 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 77 70 79 71 / 40 40 50 10

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: None. GM: None.