Kemah, TX 77565 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Some patchy fog possible overnight and early morning hours.

- Slightly drier air briefly moves in from the east today.

- Rain chances return Friday through the weekend as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

Discussion

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

With lingering low-lvl moisture and light, variable winds, patchy fog will be possible through the early morning hours, particularly over the Brazos Valley area. Rain chances diminish today as a drier air mass filters in from the east. However, PW values will remain somewhat elevated across our far western counties; combined with weak impulses of energy aloft, a few light showers will remain possible in those areas. Given the abundant cloud cover, today's highs will generally remain the low 80s.

Moisture influx strengthens again on Friday as disturbances aloft move north-northeastward across the region. This will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with the best chances confined to areas west of the I-45 corridor. Rain chances continue overnight Friday and become more widespread on Saturday as PW values surge into the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range. Most of this activity should gradually taper off by early Saturday evening as the main mid/upper lvl shortwaves lift out of the region.

Rain and storm chances decrease by Sunday thanks to increasing subsidence aloft associated with a building upper-lvl ridge to our west. Attention then turns to early next week as a deepening longwave trough traverses the western CONUS. Deterministic models and ensemble means continue to show a spread regarding the evolution, strength and timing of this system and its associated FROPA. The most progressive guidance brings the front through early Tuesday, whereas slower solutions (like the ECMWF) delay the front until late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Given this uncertainty, the exact timing as well as any thunderstorm or severe weather potential across Southeast Texas remains unclear at this time. Regardless of timing differences, a FROPA appears likely next week, bringing rain chances followed by slightly cooler conditions in its wake. Specific details will become clearer as guidance comes into better agreement in future forecast updates.

JM

Aviation

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. Winds will be out of the ESE through the day today, becoming light and variable overnight. Light showers may skirt the western terminals through the day today; however, not expecting significant impacts.

Bailey

Marine

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow will continue at least through Saturday, leading to occasional moderate onshore winds and seas in the 3 to 4 ft range. A few light showers possible today, but the best chances arrive Friday and Saturday as different weak disturbances move through the region. Winds become more southeasterly after Sunday and may become moderate at times. Will continue to monitor conditions next week as elevated winds and building seas will be possible ahead of a FROPA possibly arriving in the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.

JM

Preliminary point temps/pops

College Station (CLL) 82 63 79 63 / 20 10 20 30 Houston (IAH) 83 65 81 67 / 10 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 71 79 71 / 0 0 20 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: None. GM: None.