Dayton, TX 77535 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE:

Key messages

- Rain chances expected through this afternoon as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday.

- The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week along and ahead of a cold front.

Discussion

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Latest IR and water vapor satellite imagery shows the mid-level trough just over the region, which is gradually moving northeast. Deep low to mid-level moisture still persists, and as a result we continue to see intermittent light to moderate showers overnight. Deep moisture axis will continue to shift east-northeast today (Saturday) as the main upper trough lifts into the Lower MS Valley. The combination of deep moisture, subtle forcing still persisting aloft and daytime heating will lead to rain and storm chances through the day. Latest Hi-res guidance shows a less active forecast for today, showing only isolated to scattered showers and storms, not as widespread. The main focus will be for areas along and east of I-45 and adjacent Gulf waters. Most of this activity should taper off by late this afternoon/early evening, though some spotty rain will be possible north of I-10 through the night.

Once the trough shifts east and forcing/dynamics aloft move out of the region, weak ridging aloft should support quieter conditions through at least Monday. Expect drier and warmer conditions on Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.

A longwave trough over the western CONUS will deepen as it tracks eastward across the Plains by Monday. As this trough deepens and amplifies over the central CONUS, it will drag a cold front southeastward across SE Texas by Tuesday. Latest guidance is coming with better agreement regarding the phasing and timing of this FROPA, bringing the front across our westernmost areas by Tuesday morning, and reaching the coast by Tuesday evening/night. A few showers and storms are possible ahead of the front (late Monday through Tuesday), with increasing chances along the boundary. At the moment, instability is limited, so severe weather potential is low but nonzero and impacts from localized heavy rainfall will strongly depend on the final progression of this system. For now, prepare for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. In the wake of the front, drier and cooler weather is expected with near- seasonal temperatures.

JM

Aviation

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Light showers linger over the area N of I-10 currently keeping the trend of light activity through the overnight due to increased moisture. In the early morning the signal for MVFR CIGS remains through the early afternoon. The afternoon can see another round of -SHRA, but timing and coverage continue to have decreased confidence so PROB30 for IAH and S remain. The early trick-or- treat hrs see winds relaxing and decreasing -SHRA chances.

CMW

Marine

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight through at least early this afternoon. Elevated winds with gusts of 20 to 30+ kts and seas around 4ft can be expected near any strong thunderstorms. Showers and storms should diminish later today, resulting in light to occasionally moderate east to northeast winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. Winds will transition to the east-southeast by Sunday, before moderate late Monday into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is progged to reach the coastal waters by Tuesday night/early Wednesday with moderate to strong offshore winds in its wake.

JM

Preliminary point temps/pops

College Station (CLL) 64 80 65 84 / 50 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 67 80 68 83 / 50 40 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 70 79 71 79 / 90 30 10 10

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: None. GM: None.