Santa Fe, TX 77517 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE:

Key messages

- Slightly drier air briefly moves in from the east today.

- Rain chances return Friday through the weekend as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- A cold front could move across Southeast Texas sometime early next week.

Discussion

Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A drier airmass pushing in from the east today, will result in low rain chances for much of Southeast Texas. Some drizzle or very light showers could occur over the Brazos Valley as a mid level vort max moves through. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy this evening, accompanied by east to southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph. The highs will peak in the lower 80s this afternoon over the majority of the CWA and the lows will be in the 60s overnight. Although conditions will be mostly calm tonight, another vort max could move through areas north of I-10 and could lead to some drizzle if moisture is enough to support that.

We are expecting increasing rain chances on Friday as a mid level disturbance moves overhead while warm moist air from the Western Gulf/Lower Texas Coast moves northward into Southeast Texas. NBM has scattered showers mainly for areas south of I-10 and west of I-45 during the morning hours. Rain chances in the afternoon increase over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Elsewhere, NBM only carries isolated showers and thunderstorms, likely where there is less moisture to play with. In the afternoon, the GFS does shift the vort max over or just east of the I-10 corridor; Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if some locations near or east of I-45 get a little more activity than what is currently on the forecast. Rain chances will remain in the forecast Friday night as weaknesses continue to pass through. Rain and cloudy skies will lead to highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday, but increase lows a degree or two on Friday night.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will rise further on Saturday as additional mid level weaknesses move overhead while PWATs range between 1.5 to 1.9 inches. Look for isolated to scattered showers and storms in the morning, and scattered to numerous showers and storms in the afternoon. Rain chances will decrease in the evening, with mostly tranquil conditions expected from Sunday and Monday as a mid to upper level ridge builds overhead. We will still have some moisture in place for both days, and with the ridging overhead, expected temperatures to be a little warmer with highs generally ranging in the mid 80s over many locations by Monday.

We are still keeping an eye on a stronger mid to upper level trough moving into the Southern Plains early next week, which could potentially bring in a cold front sometime Tuesday or Tuesday night. Environmental conditions could favor strong storms ahead and along the front. However, there is still uncertainty between the forecast models on the timing and potential for strong to severe storms at this time. The good news is that there is good consensus on cooler conditions after the FROPA.

Cotto

Aviation

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected through Friday with extensive mid level cloud cover. Ceilings will average around 12kft. Light showers will impact KCLL terminal this afternoon but expect visibilities to remain well above 6SM. Expect east winds 7-11 kts this afternoon and again Friday. Risk of -SHRA again near KCLL later tonight and KIAH Friday afternoon but probability of any visibility impacts very low.

35/MM&&

Marine

Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the weekend. Rain chances will return Friday morning and increase on Saturday. Low rain chances expected Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds overhead. Winds look to increase late Monday as the local pressure gradient tightens ahead of a potential cold front. Shower and storm chances will also increase ahead of the FROPA on Tuesday. There are uncertainties in the forecast models concerning the timing of the FROPA, and it could push into the coastal waters sometime Tuesday evening or early Wednesday. Timing could change a but during the next few forecast updates. Expect moderate to strong northwest or north winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

Cotto

Preliminary point temps/pops

College Station (CLL) 81 63 78 63 / 10 0 10 30 Houston (IAH) 83 65 80 66 / 0 0 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 80 71 78 71 / 0 0 30 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: None. GM: None.