Conroe, TX 77301 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE:

Key messages

- Rain chances expected through Saturday as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday.

- The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week along and ahead of a cold front.

Discussion

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A mid to upper level shortwave moving in from Central and South Central Texas today is a little stronger and faster than what the models depicted yesterday. A few fairly healthy vort maxes embedded within the shortwave have also been tapping into a moist airmass associated with a weak coastal trough over the Western Gulf and Texas Coasts. This combination has been producing scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms, which are now moving over Jackson, Matagorda and Wharton Counties. During the afternoon and evening hours, the shortwave, vort maxes, and moist airmass will progress east resulting in periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms for much of Southeast Texas, with the higher chances focused over the Gulf waters and coastal counties.

The moist airmass will increase our PWs to 1.7 to 2.1 inches today, and based on the environmental conditions, periods of moderate to heavy showers can occur at times. We will need to keep an eye on slow moving showers that may lead to ponding of water along roadways and low lying areas. There is a bit of a signal for showers to slow their eastward progression later today as well. WPC currently has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall for areas along and south of I-10.

East to southeast winds will be between 5-10 mph, but can be slightly stronger in and around showers and storms. Occasional gusts of around 20 mph is also possible. Moreover, a few waterspouts or a tornado could develop this afternoon around the Matagorda Bay region, where SPC now has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of Severe Weather.

Overcast skies and rainfall will keep us on the cooler side today with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. The lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. We will continue to carry rain chances in tonight's forecast as the shortwave makes its way towards East Texas.

Looking into how much faster the shortwave is expected to move and noticing that we could have weak ridging building after it along with slightly drier air, rain chances on Saturday may be lower than what is currently on this forecast issuance. Most of the energy associated with the shortwave ejects east into Louisiana near sunrise, and we become fairly zonal aloft thereafter. One thing that could still lead to a few showers and storms, however, is a weak surface boundary potentially moving west to east during the day. Will keep 30-50% PoPs for now, but these values could change in tonight's forecast update.

Mostly tranquil and slightly warmer conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday as ridging becomes stronger overhead. A stronger mid to upper level trough will move across the Southern Plains early next week, which will then push a cold front into Southeast Texas sometime Tuesday. Model guidance is a little faster with the timing of the front today compared to yesterday, with the front now moving quickly over the Brazos Valley near sunrise and reaching the coastal areas shortly afternoon noon. The main change in the forecast associated to the recent guidance was shifting the timing of the higher PoPs to earlier in the day as well as the timing of the wind shift in the wake of the front. There is still some uncertainty with respect to the potential of strong to severe storms ahead and along the front. Expect drier and cooler conditions after the FROPA.

Cotto

Aviation

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

SHRA will increase in coverage from southwest to northeast this afternoon, with most terminals receiving at least some RA this afternoon. The exception could be GLS, where SHRA may hold off until this evening. Any period of moderate SHRA will easily result in occasional MVFR conditions. TSRA is not out of the question. However, the environment will be most favorable for thunderstorms near the coast, where we do have a VCTS this evening at GLS. Later tonight, we expect more widespread MVFR and potentially IFR (primarily after 09UTC). For now, we've hinted at the IFR potential via SCT007-SCT009 in most TAF sites. Sub-VFR conditions could hold well into tomorrow, especially north of IAH.

Self

Marine

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the weekend. A coastal trough over the TX coasts and mid to upper level shortwave moving overhead is tapping into the moist airmass over the Western Gulf and producing scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Higher winds and seas are possible in and around strong storms. In addition, waterspouts will be possible for Matagorda Bay and the adjacent waters. Rain chances continue on Saturday as the shortwave progresses eastward.

Elevated water levels over the Bays can be expected through early next. We will have low rain chances on Sunday and Monday as high pressure builds overhead. Winds could slightly increase late Monday as the local pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Shower and storm chances will return ahead of the FROPA late Monday into Tuesday. There are uncertainties in the forecast models concerning the timing of the FROPA, and it could push into the coastal waters sometime Tuesday afternoon. Timing could change a bit during the next few forecast updates. Expect stronger northwest or north winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

Cotto

Preliminary point temps/pops

College Station (CLL) 64 80 66 83 / 60 30 10 0 Houston (IAH) 67 80 69 83 / 40 40 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 79 71 80 / 60 50 10 10

Watches, warnings and advisories

TX: None. GM: None.