Carlsbad, TX 76902 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Heavy rain potential for portions of the area mainly west of a Sonora to San Angelo to Sweetwater line for Thursday afternoon through Friday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall has been issued for portions of west central Texas.

- Rain chances will continue into Saturday, but will end from west to east across the area late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Short term

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Moisture from the remnants of Vance (and abundant low level gulf moisture) will combine with the approach of a slow moving upper level trough axis to produce widespread rainfall across West Central Texas Thursday into Friday. Latest CAMs suggest that the rain will develop and move into the souther portions of the area around Ozona and Sonora Thursday morning not much after sunrise and spread north across the rest of the area through the day. This first wave appears to be mainly a large area of showers with some embedded clusters of storms.

The second wave Thursday Night into Friday may be more convective with heavier rainfall, as the low level jet of only 20-25 knots tonight increase to above 40 knots tomorrow night. This will combine with the arrival of the upper trough axis and the development of a weak 700 mb low along the Texas New Mexico border. This keeps the heaviest rain better locked into portions of the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau west into the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos for Thursday Night into Friday morning, before lifting to the north into Oklahoma late Friday.

Rain chances are high across all of West Central Texas, but still appears the highest rain totals will be along and west of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora line, which gets the bigger piece of the larger more convective complex Thursday night and Friday morning. As mentioned yesterday, PWAT totals are unusually high for the end of October at over 1.50 inches (or 2-3 SD away from normal). This means those areas that see the heavier convective bursts may see a quick 1-2 inches of rain in a short amount of time. As for totals by Friday, a general 1/2 to 1 inch will be likely for much of the area, with heavier totals across the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau in the 1-2 inch range. A few locations that see multiple storms may see some totals climb up near or above 4 inches.

At this point, will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area. Rain totals may end up impressive, but not sure that the higher rainfall rates will be widespread enough to warrant a watch. Will certainly be monitoring conditions on Thursday and will continue to revisit this thought process as we head through the event.

Long term

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Once this primary upper trough passes Friday afternoon, a much weaker trough moves across for Saturday and then a weak upper ridge develops for Sunday. This means rain chances will linger into Saturday morning, but indications are that these will be coming to an end from west to east across the area during the day. Sunday looks dry and a little warmer with more sunshine across the area. Another upper trough moves into the Plains and strengthens into a fairly impressive closed low over Oklahoma for mid week, but this placement puts West Central Texas on the southwestern edge of the precipitation for mid week. Not going to argue with the low chance POPs (20-40%) across the area, especially given uncertainty on just where this system closes off. Several of the ensemble members show the low closing off farther southwest into Texas and that would bring better rain chances for mid week back into the area if that verifies.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next several hours. widespread stratus will develop late tonight and move north across the area with MVFR ceilings at the terminals by Thursday morning, last for the KABI terminal. The ceilings will fall to IFR at the KJCT/KSOA terminals Thursday morning. Also, widespread light showers will develop across the area Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible, however confidence is to low to introduce at the terminals due to very weak instability/widespread cloud cover.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Abilene 64 78 60 70 / 0 70 80 90 San Angelo 62 74 57 71 / 0 90 90 90 Junction 62 73 57 70 / 20 90 60 80 Brownwood 62 76 58 70 / 0 70 70 90 Sweetwater 63 76 59 68 / 0 70 90 90 Ozona 61 70 58 70 / 20 100 100 90 Brady 62 73 58 69 / 0 80 70 90

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.