Paint Rock, TX 76866 Weather

: New SHORT TERM, AVIATION:

Key messages

- Heavy rain and flash flood potential for portions of the area mainly west of a Sonora to San Angelo to Sweetwater line this afternoon through Friday.

- Low to medium chance (20-60 percent) of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Monday night, followed by gusty northwest winds on Tuesday.

Short term

(Today and tonight) Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Widespread light showers continue across west-central Texas early this morning as an upper level trough moves to the northeast through Texas this morning through the rest of the day. We will continue to see periods of showers, some of them heavy at times, along with a few isolated thunderstorms. As was mentioned in the previous discussion, the most likely time for heavy rainfall that could result in flooding is expected to take place later this morning, and could linger through midday. An area of stronger lift can be seen in satellite data moving northeast out of northern Mexico toward west Texas. CAMs are also latching onto this lift and bringing in heavier rainfall between now and roughly Noon on Friday. While the heaviest totals are expected across the Northern Edwards Plateau into the southern Concho Valley, the entire west- central Texas area is expected to see periods of showers into this afternoon. Expect the showers and isolated storms to gradually dissipate this afternoon into tonight. Highs today will be cool with the ongoing rain and cloud cover, likely having a hard time getting out of the 60s, and lows tonight are expected to drop into the mid to upper 50s.

Long term

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Isolated or widely scattered showers are possible on Saturday, mainly in the morning, as a minor impulse aloft moves east-northeast into Texas and the southern Plains. Temperatures will be warmer Saturday (highs in the lower to mid 70s) but considerable cloud cover is expected to persist, given the southerly low-level flow and ample low-level moisture. The warming trend will continue Sunday as a shortwave upper ridge moves east over Texas. May see some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon, but skies overall are expected to stay mostly cloudy. Expect highs to be the upper 70s to lower 80s in our northern and central counties, and mid to upper 70s farther south.

A strong system will affect our area early next week. A large scale upper low and trough will enter the western CONUS Sunday, and overspread the Rockies on Monday. A low is progged to develop in the southern portion of this trough over northern New Mexico, and then track across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Monday night. Cold front associated with this system is forecast to move southeast across our area in the Monday evening/Monday night time frame. There is still uncertainty with the details in the eventual track of the upper low. But appears at this time that the track of the upper low and trough will be far enough south with sufficient moisture for a band of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front, as it pushes across our area. The higher rain chances and better coverage of convection look to be in our eastern and southeastern counties.

Cooler air will follow this frontal passage and will be accompanied by breezy northwest winds on Tuesday. After a warm day Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, highs Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 70s. May see some wrap around cloud cover over the northeast part of our area on Tuesday, as moisture wraps around the departing upper system. Dry weather to follow for Wednesday and Thursday, as surface high pressure settles into Texas by Wednesday and shifts to the east on Thursday. After the period of well-above normal morning low temperatures our area has seen in the past several days, will have a couple of cool nights Tuesday night and Wednesday night with lows mostly in the 40s. The coolest night looks to be Wednesday night when better radiational cooling could allow for temperatures to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s at some locations.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions at times are expected through the next 24 hours. Area terminals will continue to see periods of SHRA along with a few isolated TSRA, with degraded CIG heights throughout most of the day. Although VSBYs won't be below 6SM for the entire time, there will likely be periods of lowered VIS due to some of the heavier rain. Although the precipitation is expected to end by around 00Z Friday evening, the low clouds are expected to remain, and remain MVFR or worse through Friday night.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Abilene 67 57 73 62 / 90 60 20 0 San Angelo 65 56 74 60 / 100 40 20 0 Junction 66 56 74 60 / 100 40 20 0 Brownwood 69 55 74 59 / 80 50 20 0 Sweetwater 63 57 71 61 / 100 50 10 0 Ozona 66 58 72 61 / 100 30 10 10 Brady 65 55 72 60 / 90 40 20 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

Flood Watch through this afternoon for Crockett-Irion-Kimble- Schleicher-Sutton.