Arlington, TX 76016 Weather

: New SHORT TERM, AVIATION:

Key messages

- Scattered showers (40-60% coverage) are expected Thursday through Friday generally along and west of the I-35 corridor.

- Scattered showers (40-60% coverage) are expected across all of North and Central Texas Friday Night through Saturday afternoon.

- Confidence is increasing in another storm system bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week.

Short term

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Weather conditions today will be characterized by increasing cloud cover with scattered rain showers (40-60% coverage) along and west of the I-35 corridor. The primary forcing mechanisms driving the increasing rain chances are divergence aloft from a departing upper-level jet, and forcing for ascent owing to PVA with the approach of a mid-level vort max associated with Tropical Storm Vance (just off the Pacific coast of Mexico). As this mid-level disturbance traverses the Mexican Plateau and ejects northeast into West Texas tonight into Friday, scattered showers should increase in coverage particularly west of US-281 where the greatest moisture and lift will reside. East of the I-35 corridor, mid-level dry air increases with eastward extent. This along with weaker forcing will likely result in widespread mid to high- level clouds with rain struggling to make it to the surface. However, a few isolated (15-30% chance) rain showers can't be ruled out in this area today.

Friday, widespread cloud cover and scattered showers are expected all day as the aforementioned mid-level disturbance slowly traverses the state from southwest to northeast. Rain chances will be greatest west of US-281 (70-80%) and decrease with eastward extent (10-20% east of I-35). Thunderstorms are not expected today or Friday as instability will be severely lacking. The greatest chance to hear a rumble or two of thunder (~5%) will be west of I-35 and north of I-20 Thursday evening/night.

Today, near normal temperatures (highs in the low-70s) are most likely west of I-35 and south of I-20 where cloud cover will be thickest and rain will be most widespread. Mid/upper level cloud cover should be thin enough across the rest of the region to allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper-70s and lower-80s this afternoon. Thicker cloud cover region-wide and more widespread rain across much of Central Texas will likely result in cooler temperatures Friday than today. Most will be near to slightly below normal with highs ranging from the upper-60s west of US-281 to the upper-70s east of I-35.

Long term

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The gradual progression of the upper trough axis overhead will continue to support high-based rain showers and widespread cloud cover Friday night into Saturday. However, this activity should be steadily tapering off during the daytime as modest height rises begin to follow behind the system's departure. This should allow for largely uninterrupted Halloween evening activities as most precip exits the area by late afternoon. However, it will still be a warm and muggy afternoon and evening with highs in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. With large-scale subsidence likely to prevail on Sunday, skies should continue to clear while temperatures return to above normal with highs in the 80s.

Medium-range guidance continues to be fairly consistent regarding our next storm system which is set to arrive Monday into Tuesday. A powerful upper trough is forecast to deepen across the entire Central US by Monday, and this system will send a cold front into North Texas either late Monday or Tuesday. This boundary would almost certainly be accompanied by deep convection along and/or preceding it given the amply warm, moist, and unstable warm sector in place prior to its arrival. Some strong/severe convection would be a possibility based on the parameter space alone, although these details remain uncertain at this time range. Depending on the eventual evolution of this system, the midweek period could either consist of some wrap-around precipitation, or more likely, a mild and dry post-frontal airmass with temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

While most rain showers should remain west of TAF sites, a few isolated showers (20-30% chance) may make their way in the vicinity of the terminals so have included VCSH. Probs currently remain too low to prevail precip at any given TAF site. There will also be a period of northerly but very light (<5 knots) flow generally between 05Z and 15Z at D10 sites (between 23Z and 10Z at KACT).

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 66 76 62 / 20 30 30 40 Waco 81 63 76 61 / 30 20 30 40 Paris 84 63 78 60 / 0 10 10 30 Denton 82 61 75 57 / 20 40 30 50 McKinney 82 63 76 58 / 10 20 20 40 Dallas 83 66 77 63 / 20 20 30 40 Terrell 83 64 78 59 / 10 10 20 40 Corsicana 82 64 77 62 / 10 20 20 40 Temple 80 63 77 62 / 30 20 40 40 Mineral Wells 81 60 73 57 / 40 60 60 50

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.