Zavalla, TX 75980 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT:

Key messages

Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Very warm and dry conditions will continue areawide today and Friday, as above normal temperatures persist.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop and increase across much of the region Friday night through Saturday, but should begin to diminish for those trick-or- treaters across East Texas and Western Louisiana.

- While a reprieve in the rains is expected Sunday and much of Monday, showers and thunderstorms containing much needed wetting rains will spread into the region Monday evening through Tuesday before much cooler and drier conditions return for the latter half of next week.

Discussion

Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The early morning satellite imagery indicates extensive bands of thin cirrus which continue to spread E across the region, with these elevated cigs expected to gradually thicken through the day today as the first in a series of shortwave troughs develop over Cntrl Old MX and lifts NNE into Wrn and Cntrl TX this afternoon. Also seeing some areas of elevated cu developing beneath the cirrus shield over portions of ECntrl TX and SE OK, which remains progged to fill more NE with time today near the center of the H850 ridge which will gradually shift into the Mid-South region. As was the case Wednesday afternoon, the cu field may be stubborn to scatter out across portions of E TX/adjacent SW AR and SE OK, although the short term progs continue to suggest that a wedge of low level dry air will mix back W across much of N LA and Srn AR later today. Enough insolation should occur today over the Ern half of the area before the cirrus shield thickens later this afternoon as the drier air mixes W, such that min RH's will range from 25-35% over Srn AR/N LA, and result in an elevated wildfire threat even in the presence of light Erly bndry lyr winds. The thickening elevated cigs should result in slightly milder overnight temps tonight, as radiational cooling will be reduced, but the drier bndry lyr air (lower dewpoints) will still maintain cool/comfortable conditions.

The short term progs continue to suggest another developing shortwave trough that will traverse the Big Bend Region of TX tonight/Friday morning, advancing NE through the Srn Plains through the day and through the region Friday evening/night. The thickening moisture profile should result in slightly cooler daytime temps Friday, although much of the day should remain dry before increasing large scale ascent along the trough axis and low level moisture advection contributes to the development of scattered convection over much of the area Friday night. QPF amounts do not look very appreciable with this event, which may diminish in time for the evening trick-or-treaters at least over much of E TX and possibly portions of Wrn LA Saturday evening. Regardless, the various progs have sped up the departure of these embedded disturbances aloft Saturday night, leading to a warm, humid, and dry Sunday.

These dry conditions will be short-lived though as longwave troughing develops over the Great Basin Sunday, and shifts ESE through the Rockies/Four Corners Region Monday as an upper low begins to close off over NM and Far W TX. While ridging aloft will be prevalent over the area Monday ahead of this deep troughing, thus maintaining very warm and dry conditions in place, increasing low level moisture advection and large scale ascent ahead of the trough will yield an increase in convection Monday afternoon over the Srn Plains, before gradually spreading E into the region Monday night and especially Tuesday. The 00Z runs of the GFS/ECMWF have trended even slower than previous runs with the development/movement of this convection, developing along and potentially behind a sfc dryline, before cooler and much drier air is able to sweep into the area beneath and behind this closed low/trough. While the potential for organized rains producing widespread beneficial rains appear likely (with QPF's of 1-3 inches possible), any severe threat is much more uncertain, given the continued timing uncertainties of the arrival of the best ascent/front and its placement with respect to the better instability axis as indicated in the various AI and ML guidance. Once this system is able to traverse the region by the midweek timeframe, cooler and more seasonable temps with the return to dry conditions are expected for the latter half of the new work week.

15

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

High thin cirrus once again is increasing from west to east across our airspace late this evening and expect this to continue through the overnight hours into the daytime hours on Thursday. Likewise, expect a gradual lowering of moisture with ceilings near 14kft or higher by late in the TAF period across our western half. Cu field will also be possible across our I-20 terminals and points south but with low VFR heights ranging from near 4-6kft. In other words, VFR conditions should prevail across all terminal locations for this TAF period. Look for east to southeast winds with speeds under 10kts thru the period as well.

13

Fire weather

Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

An elevated wildfire threat will continue today especially across Southwest Arkansas, North Louisiana, and portions of extreme Eastern Texas, as a combination of low relative humidity and critically to extremely dry fuels will help spread any wildfires that ignite. /15/

Spotter information statement

Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today in the event of wildfire development. /15/

Preliminary point temps/pops

SHV 85 58 80 63 / 0 0 0 30 MLU 85 55 82 61 / 0 0 0 20 DEQ 84 59 80 58 / 0 0 0 30 TXK 84 60 80 59 / 0 0 0 30 ELD 85 53 80 57 / 0 0 0 30 TYR 83 63 80 61 / 0 10 10 30 GGG 84 59 80 60 / 0 0 0 30 LFK 84 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 20

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. LA: None. OK: None. TX: None.