Garrison, TX 75946 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Abnormally warm temperatures and continued dry conditions will linger across the region through much of Friday, before scattered showers and a few thunderstorms finally return to the area Friday night through the first half of the upcoming weekend.

- Halloween trick-or-treating may be wet for some Saturday evening as scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist before diminishing late Saturday night or early Sunday.

- The return for additional showers and thunderstorms and much needed rain is expected Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front, which should bring more seasonal temperatures back to the area by midweek next week.

Discussion

Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A light SSErly low level flow late this evening has yielded a bit of a cu field over portions of Deep E TX/Wrn LA, even as the elevated cigs continue to diminish across the Ern sections of NCntrl LA. While the region remains on the wrn fringes of sfc ridging extending from E TX NE through the TN Valley into New England, which has resulted in decoupling winds, the expanding cu field should help to limit the extent of radiational cooling, resulting in overnight temps a bit milder than what was observed the last several mornings. Weak sfc ridging should hold across the area through Friday, although some low level moisture will continue to affect the Wrn half of the area through the period, but the lack of any lifting mechanism in the SW flow aloft will maintain dry conditions across the region. Above normal daytime temps will continue though, as stronger insolation results with the extent of any elevated cigs neglishable, which has helped hold afternoon temps down in recent days.

Our next weather-maker will come in the form of a developing shortwave trough, which will lift NE out of Cntrl Old MX Thursday and into WCntrl TX/OK Thursday night and Friday. Elevated cigs will begin to increase and thicken across E TX/N LA Thursday ahead of this system, before spreading across the remainder of the region Thursday night. The deep lyr moisture profile will remain shallow though through much of Friday, before low level moisture advection increases enough in time as large scale ascent increases ahead of the ejecting trough. Should see an increase in scattered convection across the region Friday night and Halloween Saturday, but QPF should remain light with the trick-or-treat forecast not necessarily a washout, although the potential exists that some convection may linger Saturday night across Southwest AR/N LA. While the increased cloud cover will yield cooler daytime temps Friday into the weekend, the increase in low level moisture will result in more humid conditions, especially in time for the trick-or-treaters Saturday evening with dewpoints well into the 60s. The GFS remains more progressive with the ejection of the trough than the slower ECMWF, and while at least some isolated -SHRA may linger across the area Sunday, we await the next deepening trough/closed low that will develop Sunday over the Great Basin, which will drift through the Rockies and the Four Corners Region Sunday night and Monday.

This deepening system will tap an increase in deepening moisture once again, with convection developing along/ahead of an attendant cold front from the Srn Plains Ne into the Ozarks. Timing and convection placement remain a bit uncertain this far out given the uncertainties amongst the various ensembles, and also the potential for the low to close off and linger to our W through at least mid to late next week. But in any case, this second system could bring about much needed rain to the region, the first significant rains since September/early October. In the wake of this system, more seasonal temps should return to the region for mid and late next week.

15

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Very shallow low level moisture return is being observed this morning across our airspace with any ceilings being mostly VFR with base heights near 3.5kft to 4kft. The exception to this is the TYR terminal as the further west you go into our airspace, the lower the cloud bases with TYR currently with a prevailing ceiling at 2kft. Eventually, any MVFR ceilings will return to VFR conditions by mid to late morning. We should see increasing high clouds once again from the west and southwest late in the TAF period. Look for E to SE winds with speeds near 5 to 10kts or less.

13

Fire weather

Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

An elevated wildfire threat will persist today and again Thursday over North Louisiana, Southwest Arkansas, extreme Southeast Oklahoma, and portions of extreme Eastern Texas, as a combination of low relative humidity and critically to extremely dry fuels will help spread any wildfires that ignite. /15/

Spotter information statement

Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Spotter activation may be needed over the next couple of days in the event of wildfire development. /15/

Preliminary point temps/pops

SHV 84 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 85 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 84 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 84 57 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 85 50 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 84 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 84 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 85 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. LA: None. OK: None. TX: None.