Colmesneil, TX 75938 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

- Dry conditions with warm afternoons and cool nights will continue through the Thursday.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated each afternoon through Thursday, due to continuing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 30-60%.

- Rain chances return to the forecast late Friday into Saturday.

Discussion

(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Surface high pressure continues to hold across the eastern CONUS, yielding light flow at the surface generally out of the east. Aloft, southwesterly flow continues between a broad trough axis over California and a weakening longwave ridge over the Northeast. A moisture gradient is located overhead, with GOES derived PWAT ranging from around 0.8 inches over lower Acadiana to 1.5 inches over southeast Texas.

Over the next day or so, a short-lived drying trend is expected as drier continental air advects in with the low-level easterly flow, with PWAT decreasing to around 0.8-0.9 inches area-wide by late Thursday night (right around median for late October). This should result in continued dry weather with high temperatures in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the 50s inland to low 60s near the coast.

By Friday morning, an upper-level shortwave trough will begin to push into the southern Plains as an associated surface low develops over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. These features will come with tropical moisture originating from the remnants of TS Vance in the eastern Pacific. At the same time, a push of moisture rotating around a surface low currently centered over Florida will reach the western Gulf. The combination of these two features will bring a rapid increase in moisture starting Friday, with LREF mean PWAT reaching 1.7-1.8 inches (90th-95th percentile) by Saturday afternoon. The result will be the return of rain chances to the forecast, with a few isolated showers possible Friday. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase Saturday, as moisture continues to increase and forcing from the left exit region of a 300mb jet spreads overhead.

There does not appear to be a substantial severe risk with this system owing mainly to weak upper-level flow and marginal deep layer shear, but a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. One element to watch with any stronger storms that are able to develop will be the threat of heavy rainfall given the very moist airmass that will be in place. At this time, a widespread flash flood risk is not anticipated especially with very dry antecedent conditions, but any stronger storms will likely carry at least some risk of high rainfall rates that could result in ponding of water in low-lying areas. Another element to consider will be light unidirectional flow and generally slow storm motions, which could bring a threat for training convection and localized higher rainfall amounts. WPC has outlooked our entire CWA in a Marginal (level 1/4) risk for flash flooding for Saturday as a result. It should be noted that uncertainty is quite high with this weekend's system, with NBM 25th- 75th percentile QPF spreads from as low as zero to around 0.8 inches across the area. Stay tuned for updates with future forecast packages as details come into better focus. The elevated rain chances and cloud cover will bring a slight cooling trend to daytime highs and warming of overnight lows through Saturday, with temps ranging from low 80s in the afternoons to 60s overnight.

Rain chances diminish Sunday as upper-level forcing departs and ridging builds in overhead, but the moist airmass will stick around. Guidance is in agreement in a deeper upper-level trough digging into the southern Plains early next week, with a strong cold front crossing the CWA sometime around Tuesday into Wednesday. With enhanced upper level flow around the base of the trough, there could be a threat of stronger storms with this system, with NSSL ML guidance starting to pick up on this potential. Significant uncertainty is inherent at this lead time, but at the moment this system looks to offer good chances of widespread rainfall and a significant cooling trend.

64/Silas

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

East winds around 5-10 kt will persist through the afternoon at all terminals, becoming light and variable after sunset. Patchy fog may develop late overnight, particularly for LCH and most likely in the 09z-13z time frame, but development is uncertain in part due to some scattered high clouds that may begin moving overhead late tonight. Fog potential has thus been left out of TAFs for sites other than LCH at this time, but trends in guidance will be monitored. Outside of patchy ground fog, VFR conditions will be expected throughout the valid TAF period.

64/Silas

Marine

Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dry conditions with easterly flow around 10-15 kt is expected for much of the next few days, under the influence of high pressure over the southeastern US. Winds may increase closer to 20 kt for the offshore waters starting Thursday afternoon, particularly further east. Small craft advisories may be needed for these areas in future forecast packages. Rain chances return to the forecast Friday into Saturday as deeper moisture moves into the area.

Fire weather

Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dry conditions continue across the area, with afternoon minimum RH expected to be in the 30-45 percent range through Thursday while winds remain light from the east. Fuels remain very dry due to ongoing drought, but higher humidity and cooler temperatures the past few days has allowed ERC values to fall to 70th-80th percentile, which should help limit fire danger somewhat compared to much of the past few weeks. RH values will start increasing again Friday as a surge of moisture arrives, bringing with it a return of rain chances to the area.

Watches, warnings and advisories

LA: None. TX: None. GM: None.