Kirbyville, TX 75933 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

- Rain chances remain elevated through today as a moisture rich atmosphere and a shortwave aloft interact overhead.

- Warm and humid but dry conditions return tomorrow through Monday.

- Rain chances increase again on Tuesday ahead of an approaching upper level low and associated cold front. Both severe weather and flooding issues may become a concern with this round of precip.

Discussion

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Moisture has returned in earnest since this time last night, and with it a welcomed swath of shower activity has developed and spread across SE TX and adjacent W LA over the last few hours. 00Z LCH sounding shows a PWAT of 1.67" which is right at the 90th percentile (1.69") according to SPC climo and is also an increase of around 0.75" from 24 hours ago. Outside of this precip, moisture return has brought on a warm and humid night, with temperatures currently in the mid 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints in the low 60s to low 70s. Temps will only fall a few degrees more into the mid to upper 60s as we near sunrise, which is around 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms.

Regarding the ongoing precip, a continued slow but steady N to NE spread of shower activity can be expected through the morning hours, as a shortwave aloft moves along the northwestern Gulf Coast and continues to provide support for convection. Thankfully for anyone with outdoor plans today, coverage should become much more isolated to scattered by the mid-morning hours however, with ample moisture available to work with some of these showers could be heavy at times through the afternoon/evening. In addition, some model guidance does want to bring some modest CAPE (~1000 J/kg or so) into the region through the afternoon (particularly along and south of I-10), which could lead to some scattered thunderstorms. Not looking at anything severe worthy, but a few rumbles of thunder and a breezy wind will be possible.

Overnight into Sunday morning, the upper level shortwave ejects off to the east taking with it the swath of highest PWATs and allowing any lingering convection to taper off through early Sunday at the latest. In its wake, PWATs fall to around the 75th percentile, leading to a warm, cloudy, and humid Sunday and Monday.

After a dry start to the week rain chances increase once again on Tuesday as an upper level cutoff low and associated cold front dive across the Plains and into the Ark-La-Tex by Tuesday morning. As moisture pools in front of this boundary, rain chances increase significantly through Tuesday generally from NW to SE along and ahead of the boundary. Some of this precip will likely be heavy at times, and could lead to localized flooding issues in poor drainage areas. Thankfully for most of us we are in need of some good heavy rain, so this should be much welcomed. In addition to the potential for heavy rain, there may also be a risk for severe weather with this front. While it still remains a bit early to iron out details the long range guidance does depict a decent increase in both CAPE and shear ahead of this front. Rain chances taper off through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in the wake of the front, as a drier airmass begins to work its way into the region. Dry air advection will initially be a bit slow but should begin to ramp up Wed afternoon/night. In addition, a much more seasonal air mass will work its way into the region for the second half of the week, leading to highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s for Wed-Sat.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Showers are moving onshore with lower VIS and CIGs. These showers are light to moderate with MVFR impacts expected through out the night. After sunrise conditions will remain borderline MVFR/VFR with low ceilings and visibility. Scattered convection will lead to periods of heavier rain and the occasional thunderstorm. Winds will remain from the east around 10 knots expect near convection, where winds will be gusty and chaotic.

Marine

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Winds through the next several days will prevail out of the east, with some near Small Craft Exercise Caution winds possible in the outer marine zones. Waves will generally be between 2 to 4 ft for the next few days before dropping to the 1 to 3 ft range late this weekend. Showers and storms will be possible this weekend and on Tuesday, where locally higher winds and seas could be possible.

Fire weather

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A surge of moisture has overspread the region tonight, allowing for some light to moderate shower activity to develop. While convection becomes more scattered post-sunrise, a moisture rich atmosphere will linger leading to afternoon minRH values in the 60-80% range today. Moisture decreases slightly tomorrow in Monday, but still remains much higher than we've been seeing the last few weeks. Still, dry conditions return until the passage of a cold front on Tuesday which will be accompanied by more widespread shower and thunderstorms. While this will be much welcomed it is not expected to move the needle towards drought class improvements. Behind the front winds shift NW and dewpoints gradually fall through the later half of the week.

Watches, warnings and advisories

LA: None. TX: None. GM: None.