Gilmer, TX 75645 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Dry and warm conditions will prevail through the remainder of the work week, as highs continue to reach the low to middle 80s each afternoon.

- Showers will return to the ArkLaTex overnight Friday into Saturday, continuing through the day and beginning to taper off from west to east by evening for our trick-or-treaters.

- Another round of showers and potentially thunderstorms is expected to arrive Monday into Tuesday as a potent cold front approaches early next week.

Discussion

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Warm and dry conditions look to continue through the remainder of the work week as a broad area of weakly defined ridging remains present from south Texas across the Deep South to the Atlantic coast. As the weekend approaches, a shortwave trough will begin to emerge over west Texas, pushing east into Friday. This shortwave will be the catalyst for the unsettled pattern going into the weekend. As of this writing, there remains some uncertainty in the timing of the wave's propagation, with more progressive solutions hinting at some early rainfall across east Texas by late Friday, though whether sufficient forcing will be in play by this time is also uncertain. NBM guidance introduces PoPs across deep east Texas after sunset Friday, spreading east overnight, with the highest chances areawide through the day Saturday.

As far as the trick-or-treating outlook for the ArkLaTex, guidance does still trend PoPs downward after 00Z Sunday from west to east, but our forecast zones east of I-49 still see Chc PoPs well into the evening. As with the time of arrival, the time of rainfall ending will be contingent on the shortwave's speed, and will bear monitoring through the days ahead as ensemble members attempt to come to a consensus.

The shortwave will sweep out to the northeast into Sunday, leaving the remainder of the weekend quiet and warm as a quickly building ridge sets up and is promptly ushered to the east by the next system taking shape over the Rockies. A large longwave trough will form a closed low as it plunges south towards the Four Corners region and east over the Front Range into the southern Plains. This low looks to deepen considerably throughout, establishing a tight pressure gradient which will approach the ArkLaTex from the northwest Monday into Tuesday. As this is still in the Days 6-7 timeframe, many variables remain in play and could alter the forecast significantly, such as trough amplitude, position and depth of the low, steering ahead of the system at low and mid levels, and so on. As of this writing, suffice to say this looks to be another decent shot at rainfall for the entire Four State Region, and possibly our first substantial rounds of thunderstorms in quite some time. Will be monitoring closely in the days ahead.

/26/

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

For the 28/18Z TAF update, VFR conditions are expected through the period with some FEW250/SCT250 high cigs and some mid-level SCT100 cigs. Winds will remain calm with some southerly direction by the end of the period. /16/

Fire weather

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into tomorrow for area fire districts generally east of the I-49 corridor in southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana, with minimum relative humidity values falling into the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range, in tandem with critically to extremely dry fuels. Any fires which develop will be able to spread with ease.

/26/

Spotter information statement

Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Spotter activation may be needed over the next couple of days in the event of wildfire development. /15/

Preliminary point temps/pops

SHV 59 84 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 52 85 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 55 86 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 58 86 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 51 85 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 63 82 63 79 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 59 83 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 58 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. LA: None. OK: None. TX: None.