Wilburton, OK 74578 Weather

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma.

Day one

Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT: Spotter Activation Not Expected.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: No Hazards. MONDAY: Thunderstorm: High Wind: and Heavy Rain Potential. TUESDAY: Thunderstorm Potential: High Wind Potential. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION: A strong storm system will impact the area Monday into Tuesday, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Both severe weather and locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially from late Monday into early Tuesday, but exact details remain unclear at this time. An autumn cold front is forecast to arrive on Tuesday, resulting in near average temperatures and dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

: New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM:

Key messages

Updated at 1202 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Rain chances continue into Saturday, spreading west to east before tapering off Saturday evening/night.

- Shower and storm chances increase Monday into Tuesday, a limited severe potential and a heavy rain threat exists Monday afternoon/night.

- A cold front early next week will drop temperatures closer to seasonal average midweek.

Short term

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered rain showers are expected to spread across parts of eastern Oklahoma through early Saturday morning as a mid level disturbance lifts northeast into the region. Farther east, into northwest Arkansas, a layer of drier low level air will limit the eastward extent of the light rain into Saturday morning, though a chance of a sprinkle exists.

During the day Saturday, this layer of drier air is forecast to erode from southwest to northeast with rain chances spreading across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain chances begin to taper off from west to east Saturday evening, and are forecast to exit northwest Arkansas late Saturday night once the backside of the mid level disturbance departs the region. These rain chances could impact outdoor activity through Saturday night. However, overall rainfall amounts should remain generally light with less than a quarter inch common, and locally up to a half inch with any stronger showers. Thunder potential also remains at 10 percent or less for most locations.

Cloud cover and low level moisture moving into the region will help to keep temperatures Saturday morning in the 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures try to warm back into the upper 60s and lower 70s during the day Saturday.

Long term

(Sunday Night through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Mostly cloudy conditions with the potential for a few breaks in the clouds are anticipated Sunday while weak ridge of high pressure moves across the southern Plains. This will help temps warm into the 70s for the CWA, while winds remain light.

A low pressure system, still just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest remains progged to move through the Western CONUS over the weekend and into the Plains Monday and Tuesday. This wave is forecast to join up with shortwave and a surge of tropical moisture moving into the southwest CONUS Sunday/Sunday night before it moves into the Plains. The low pressure system and an associated cold front are then forecast to move into/across the CWA Monday night and Tuesday. Ahead of the approaching storm system, gusty southerly winds will help transport precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches, which is near climatological max for early November, into the region.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return during the day Monday for northeast Oklahoma and then spread over the CWA with the movement of the cold front into Tuesday. Deep layer shear values and increasing instability will allow for at least a limited severe potential Monday afternoon into Monday night. The greater potential looks to be across eastern Oklahoma at this time, though if the front/low pressure system arrives faster than more of the CWA could be in play. Also, as of now, all modes of severe weather could be possible, as low level shear and low level storm relative helicity looks to increase just ahead of the front Monday evening. In addition to the severe threat, a heavy rain threat that could create localized flooding conditions also exists with the deep moisture plume setting up over the region. A limiting factor to this is storms could be moving 40-50mph, though any training of storms will increase this threat.

Storm chances taper off with the frontal passage, and then rain chances should be ending Tuesday afternoon/evening once the upper level trof axis clears the region. Behind the frontal boundary, breezy northwest/northerly winds and temperatures more closer to the seasonal average for November are forecast for the second half of next week. Another quick moving shortwave looks to push across the Plains late in the week, though with limited moisture to work with will hold onto only slight chances of rain.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Recent surface observations and satellite/radar imagery show the light rain has shifted north of all TAF sites, with prevail VFR conditions occurring. VFR is anticipated to prevail through the TAF period, but an another wave of light showers will be possible at OK sites overnight tonight and through sunrise Saturday. Thereafter, periodic showers will continue to develop across eastern OK. Kept the mention of showers out of the AR TAFs for now due to low confidence of coverage and timing, though periods of light to moderate rain will be possible during the daytime Saturday at all four AR sites; future amendments may be needed. Fog should be severely limited overnight due to very dry air near the surface and mostly cloudy/overcast skies. Winds will remain fairly light and variable throughout the period. Overall, VFR should continue to prevail through the period, but periodic MVFR vsbys will be possible where light and/or moderate rain showers fall.

Mejia

Preliminary point temps/pops

TUL 60 70 61 75 / 20 40 20 10 FSM 61 70 62 76 / 10 60 50 10 MLC 59 70 61 76 / 20 50 20 10 BVO 60 70 59 74 / 30 30 20 10 FYV 55 72 58 73 / 10 50 60 10 BYV 59 72 61 73 / 20 40 60 10 MKO 59 70 58 75 / 20 50 30 10 MIO 60 72 59 74 / 20 40 50 10 F10 58 70 58 76 / 20 40 10 10 HHW 62 70 62 78 / 40 60 20 10

Watches, warnings and advisories

OK: None. AR: None.