Tupelo, OK 74572 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest rain totals western OK and western north TX.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low confidence on details.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

Near term

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Today will feature rather pleasant, but warm, conditions as we see much less in the way of cloud cover compared to yesterday and heights rise slightly through the day. As a result, high temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon, or about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. A tightening pressure gradient will also boost winds a bit over yesterday, with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible this afternoon across much of the area (highest north). High clouds will begin to increase across southern portions of the area by late afternoon ahead of our next system but are not expected to have much impact on sensible weather.

Ware

Short term

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clouds will increase through the day Thursday as mid-level moisture from Tropical Storm Vance is advected northward within broader southwest flow aloft, with rain chances increasing as well across our western north TX counties later Thursday into Thursday night as a shortwave tracks towards the area. Better rain chances arrive Friday and Friday night as the wave reaches the area, with the highest rainfall totals still favored across western OK and western north TX where warm air advection will be strongest. Instability appears lacking with this system which should limit the thunderstorm potential to isolated at best, meaning a fairly low lightning risk (10-20%) in most areas.

Ware

Long term

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Forcing is expected to weaken Saturday as the wave moves eastward, but the general trend has been towards a bit slower exit for precipitation chances Saturday, with rain showers potentially lasting into the afternoon or early evening across central and north-central OK. Once again lightning potential appears low. Storm-total rainfall amounts are likely to exceed an inch across portions of western OK and western north TX where NBM is still highlighting over 60-70% probabilities of this amount, with probabilities of exceeding an inch of rain quickly dropping to 10-20% along and east of I-35 where totals closer to 0.5-0.75" are expected to be more common.

Drier conditions are forecast Saturday night into much of the day on Sunday but will not last long as another system is slated to move in rather quickly behind this one. Models are still struggling to resolve the details of this system as energy from the northern and southern streams attempts to phase over the central US. Depending on how the two streams interact will determine the track and amplitude of the system as it moves across the area early next week. The more amplified solutions would bring a risk for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall to portions of the area, while other solutions show extensive dry-slotting and much lower rainfall totals. No clear favorite is evident in the ensemble members at the moment leading to rather low forecast confidence during this period, though for now the period of greatest potential impact appears to be centered around Monday. Cooler temperatures are then forecast to move in behind this system, bringing at least a brief break from our above average stretch by the middle of next week.

Ware

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Broken stratus producing low ceilings will linger across western Oklahoma in the vicinity of KCSM so will keep a TEMPO for a potential MVFR category through 21Z at that terminal. Otherwise all of our remaining terminals should remain in a VFR category through the entire forecast period. A surface low lee of the Colorado Rockies will maintain south surface winds around 10-15 kts with 20-25 kt gusts across some of our terminals. Surface winds should back slightly south-southeast by 00Z with decreasing winds speeds around 5-10 kts. A low-level jet will increase after 06Z which could potentially produce low-level wind shear conditions in its maxima over four of our terminals in central & northcentral Oklahoma. By 16Z surface winds will veer south- southwest at 10-15 kts.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Oklahoma City OK 62 82 61 71 / 0 10 30 70 Hobart OK 61 82 60 68 / 0 10 60 100 Wichita Falls TX 62 83 61 71 / 0 30 50 90 Gage OK 58 82 57 68 / 0 0 30 90 Ponca City OK 61 84 61 74 / 0 0 20 70 Durant OK 63 84 63 76 / 0 10 10 20

Watches, warnings and advisories

OK: None. TX: None.