Skiatook, OK 74070 Weather

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma.

Day one

This Afternoon and Tonight.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER. RISK: Limited. AREA: Primarily Northeast Oklahoma. ONSET: Ongoing: ending by sunset.

DISCUSSION:

Grassland fire spread rates will increase this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma where gusty winds up to 25 mph will combine with ongoing warm and dry conditions. Winds will decrease around sunset.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT: Spotter Activation Not Expected.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday. THURSDAY and FRIDAY: No Hazards. SATURDAY: Thunderstorm Potential. SUNDAY: No Hazards. MONDAY and TUESDAY: Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Rain chances increase on Friday and especially Friday night through Saturday. A low chance of thunderstorms will develop on Saturday. A stronger storm system is likely to impact the region early next week. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are currently forecast with potential for both heavy rain and severe weather impacts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Updated at 616 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will continue through Thursday.

- Rain chances increase late Thursday night through Saturday.

- Potential for stronger storm system early next week but uncertainty remains high.

Short term

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Unseasonably warm conditions will continue tonight through Thursday. Wind speeds will be slightly less on Thursday afternoon which will limit grassland fire spread rates. Widespread rains will develop across W TX and spread eastward with low rain chances developing across areas west of Highway 75 corridor by sunrise Friday.

Long term

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Shortwave trough with a tropical moisture plume will pass across the region Friday night into Saturday. Corridor of higher rain chances will focus across the western periphery of the forecast area through Friday before higher rain chances spread further east Friday night into Saturday. Thicker cloud cover will keep temperatures noticeably cooler on Friday. Rains are likely to taper off from west to east across eastern OK Saturday evening and into Saturday night across western AR. Instability continues to appear limited as this wave passes which is expected to keep lightning impact low through Saturday outdoor events.

Mild and dry weather is expected on Sunday ahead of the next storm system which will impact the region next Monday into Tuesday. Ensemble solutions remain in good agreement that a strong wave will deepen across the central and southern Plains on Monday and then likely make slow eastward progress through at least Tuesday. Widespread precip shield within the warm advection plume and along the advancing cold front are likely to impact the local region. Timing remains varied as well as details on the warm sector expansion ahead of the front and associated storm impact potential. Despite the uncertainties, the trend remains for impactful weather early next week and updated forecasts will continue to refine details.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all locations. Wind speeds will be lighter compared to this afternoon while remaining southerly. There will be an increase in high and mid clouds from the south during the day Thursday.

Preliminary point temps/pops

TUL 61 84 63 77 / 0 0 10 50 FSM 59 86 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 60 83 62 75 / 0 10 10 20 BVO 56 84 58 76 / 0 0 10 70 FYV 55 82 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 59 81 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 59 84 61 76 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 59 82 60 77 / 0 0 0 20 F10 60 83 62 75 / 0 0 10 40 HHW 62 83 63 76 / 0 10 10 10

Watches, warnings and advisories

OK: None. AR: None.