Bristow, OK 74010 Weather

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma.

Day one

Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT: Spotter Activation Not Expected.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday. FRIDAY: No Hazards. SATURDAY and SUNDAY: Thunderstorm Potential. MONDAY: Thunderstorm: High Wind: Heavy Rain Potential. TUESDAY: Thunderstorm: High Wind Potential. WEDNESDAY: No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION:

There will be a low chance for thunderstorms across far southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas Saturday afternoon and night in association with a passing wave aloft. After a quiet day on Sunday, thunderstorm chances will return Sunday night mainly to northeast Oklahoma with the approach of a strong storm system.

A strong storm system is expected to organize over the Plains early next week. Moisture return ahead of a strong area of low pressure and associated cold front will bring potential for thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, some of which could be strong to severe. A widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall event is expected. The flood threat is not zero, but it will be limited by the recent drought conditions over the area. Strong winds can be expected at times as the low pressure tightens the gradient over the region, both ahead of and behind the cold front.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Updated at 1151 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Well above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will continue on Thursday.

- Rain chances increase beginning early Friday morning through much of Saturday.

- The potential for an impactful storm system early next week continues to increase, but specifics remain uncertain.

Short term

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft continues across the region tonight ahead of a broad western CONUS trough. At the surface, a relatively tight pressure gradient will keep southerly winds elevated around 10 mph overnight. Mid and high level clouds will begin to increase from south to north through the overnight period and through the morning Thursday. With steady low-level moisture advection in place, cannot completely rule out some patchy low- stratus formation toward daybreak Thursday, especially across portions of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Between the persistent breeze and increasing cloud cover, overnight lows will remain quite mild, settling in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

During the daytime Thursday, mid and high level clouds will continue to spread into the area from the south as the moisture- rich shortwave trough moves across northwest Mexico. Despite the increasing high clouds, dry weather will prevail and temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 80s, roughly 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Finally, southerly winds wont be quite as breezy Thursday as surface low pressure slides across the Great Lakes Region and eases the pressure gradient locally. Wind speeds/gusts are expected to be light enough that fire weather concerns remain minimal.

Mejia

Long term

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Moisture advection increases Thursday night as an initial shortwave trough ejects from northern Mexico into the Southern Plains. The NBM brings a sharp gradient of PoPs (20-80%), mostly confined to the northwest quadrant of the CWA by early Friday morning. Consensus in model data have slowed the eastern progress of the rain, keeping the majority of far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas practically rain-free through much of the day Friday. Rain chances will gradually become more widespread and are still expected to peak overnight Friday night into Saturday afternoon (PoPs 40-60%) as synoptic lift spreads over the CWA ahead of the slowly advancing mid-level wave. As the shortwave trough axis finally passes east of the area Saturday afternoon, rain chances will steadily end west-to-east. Ensemble and deterministic guidance both show very limited instability, which should keep thunder chances low through this particular storm event. Rainfall totals will stay generally light, ranging from a few hundredths of an inch to around a quarter of an inch. However, a few isolated areas may have slightly higher totals, closer to half an inch, especially north of I-44 and west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma.

A brief break in rain chances looks probable on Sunday as the shortwave lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes, resulting in dry and mild weather. Focus then turns to a significantly deeper trough/cut-off low that will dig across the western and central CONUS Monday through Wednesday. Overall, there is good agreement in models in showing impactful weather resulting from this system. Global deterministic models alongside AI/machine-learning suites depict strong run-to-run consistency on a potent cold front pushing through the Southern Plains, but continue to differ on the exact timing on its passage. While timing and spatial details still carry high ensemble spread, higher rain and storm chances (NBM PoPs 50-70%) are expected to precede the boundary on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a noticeable post-frontal cool down toward more seasonal values (highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s) by next Wednesday. Continue to check back for updates as forecast specifics are refined.

Mejia

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with scattered clouds in the 5-8 kft range and increasing high clouds. Ceilings will develop and lower to 4-7 kft Friday morning with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms (10-20 percent chance, too low to include in the TAFs). Storm activity will focus across eastern OK, with only a small chance of precipitation reaching to Arkansas. Winds will remain out of the south, slightly stronger in the day, but gusts remaining below 15 kts.

Preliminary point temps/pops

TUL 85 64 75 58 / 0 10 40 20 FSM 86 61 77 60 / 10 0 10 30 MLC 83 63 75 57 / 0 20 10 30 BVO 84 61 74 54 / 0 10 50 20 FYV 83 58 76 55 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 82 60 76 57 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 84 63 74 57 / 0 10 10 30 MIO 82 62 76 57 / 0 0 20 20 F10 84 63 74 57 / 0 20 20 30 HHW 83 65 76 59 / 10 10 10 30

Watches, warnings and advisories

OK: None. AR: None.