Frederick, OK 73542 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Updated at 1052 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest rain totals western OK and western north TX.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low confidence on details.

- Near to above normal temperatures persist into early next week.

Near term

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery shows remnants of Tropical Storm Vance moving through Texas this afternoon. This activity will continue to slowly spread northward into western north Texas and far southwestern Oklahoma this evening. Increasing precipitation chances will accompany this system later tonight, especially across western north Texas and western Oklahoma where the better large scale scent will reside. Instability will be quite limited tonight, but will still be enough for lightning activity within the convective cores. Aforementioned precipitation chances will increase and spread northward through the overnight hours, making it to the I-40 corridor by sunrise.

Bunker

Short term

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Widespread rain showers are expected throughout much of Friday, as the main system moves across the southern Plains. Once again, there will be just enough instability for a few lightning strikes, especially in the morning. Large scale ascent will shift towards the east through the day, and should mostly be out of the area by Saturday morning. That being said, expecting any showers to weaken and decrease in coverage from southwest to northeast throughout the day into the overnight hours. Given the coverage and stratiform nature of the precipitation that is expected, rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.5 inches are likely across much of the area.

Any lingering precipitation will exit the area Saturday evening. Cloud cover will remain across the southern Plains through the beginning of the weekend, so expect high temperatures to range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Bunker

Long term

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Drier conditions are expected through Sunday morning but will not last long as troughing over the western US amplifies and moves into the central US. Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the trough as it moves into the Plains, with solutions ranging from a slower, deeper cutoff low to more of an open wave moving across our area. This will have implications for rainfall amounts and severe weather potential, and obviously timing, for our area. For now, the best model consensus would suggest at least low end severe weather potential Monday into Monday night as moisture surges northward ahead of a dryline/pacific front, followed by cooler temperatures and perhaps continued shower activity Tuesday on the backside of the trough. However, given the uncertainty expect the details to continue to evolve as we draw closer.

Ware

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

An area of rain will move into western north Texas and far southern Oklahoma not long after 06Z and move north-northeastward through the morning. This area will lead to a period of 3-4 hours of steadier rain, lowered ceilings (MVFR to IFR), and potentially reduced visibilities right at daybreak. A lull will likely then occur in precipitation for much of the afternoon, though breaking back through to VFR ceilings may be difficult. More light to moderate rain is expected after 0Z.

Meister

Preliminary point temps/pops

Oklahoma City OK 61 69 56 69 / 40 90 50 50 Hobart OK 59 66 55 69 / 60 100 70 30 Wichita Falls TX 60 70 56 72 / 80 80 60 50 Gage OK 57 64 51 65 / 10 90 70 20 Ponca City OK 61 73 56 70 / 0 90 40 40 Durant OK 63 76 59 74 / 30 20 40 60

Watches, warnings and advisories

OK: None. TX: None.