Jerusalem, AR 72141 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Upper level high pressure will be moving to the east of the forecast area today with dry and mild conditions expected.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this weekend but rain amounts are not expected to be very high.

- A much stronger system is set to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms likely.

- The chances of severe weather appear low at this time with the system next week but can not be ruled out entirely. The system will continue to be watched closely.

Discussion

Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

No appreciable changes will be made to the current forecast package this morning with guidance continuing to show the pattern becoming more active than what has been seen of late. All is quiet across the FA this morning with just a generous amount of mid to high level moisture advancing across the state with temperatures on the seasonably cool side.

Pattern this morning features a somewhat amplified upper flow with upper ridging over the central gulf and extending off the the northwest. Upper level troughing/upper level low pressure remains off the west coast at this time and will become a major player in our sensible weather mid to late next week.

The aforementioned upper ridge slowly shifts away from the region today but will still provide the FA with another day of warm and dry conditions, albeit several degrees cooler mainly due to an increase in cloud cover. As the ridge pulls east, southwest flow will increase and start to pull moisture out of the gulf and into the FA.

Guidance continue to show a couple of weak upper level impulses moving through the southwest flow to bring at least some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state. The first impulses is slated to move across Friday night and Saturday with the second one right on its heels keeping precip chances in the forecast through the weekend. The weekend will not be a complete washout by any stretch with QPF in the quarter to half inch range with the far east likely seeing the higher amounts.

Weak ridging returns for Sunday night and Monday although a stray shower can not be ruled out at any given time. Attention will then turn to the previously mentioned west coast trough/upper low that will have moved from its current position off the west coast and into the northern and central plains by the end of Monday.

Moisture levels will be increasing substantially as the parent low moves into the upper midwest Monday night into Tuesday. Surface cold front will be located over far east Oklahoma early Tuesday with a secondary area of low pressure developing along the boundary over far SW MO/far NW AR.

Long range models are in decent enough agreement with bringing the cold front through the FA Tuesday and Tuesday night with upper support keeping precipitation chances in the forecast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Timing would push the heaviest rain to the east of the metro for trick or treating but could impact any planned activity for Halloween over the east Tuesday evening.

Flooding is not a major concern with the speed of the system and antecedent conditions but several inches of rain can not be ruled out and would actually be welcomed. Severe weather at this time does not appear widespread with upper flow largely parallel to the system and stability looking limited. Still, a wary eye will remain on this system as it evolves over the next few days.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Some precip has been noted on radar: but dry air near the SFC has kept most areas dry. This trend should continue into the overnight hrs: with mainly dry conditions expected. Chances for rainfall do increase for Sat: but mainly mentioning VCSH for most sites. Better chances for precip will come just beyond this TAF period.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Batesville AR 59 75 58 74 / 0 10 70 40 Camden AR 57 73 58 78 / 10 40 40 40 Harrison AR 57 70 57 72 / 10 20 70 20 Hot Springs AR 59 72 58 77 / 10 50 50 20 Little Rock AR 61 74 60 76 / 10 30 60 30 Monticello AR 61 74 61 76 / 10 30 50 60 Mount Ida AR 54 71 55 77 / 10 50 50 20 Mountain Home AR 59 72 58 71 / 10 10 70 20 Newport AR 61 77 60 73 / 0 10 60 50 Pine Bluff AR 59 75 58 76 / 10 30 50 50 Russellville AR 59 72 57 76 / 10 30 60 20 Searcy AR 59 76 59 75 / 0 20 60 40 Stuttgart AR 62 76 62 75 / 10 20 60 50

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.