Taylor, AR 71861 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Dry and mild conditions will continue with increasing clouds before showers return overnight Friday into Saturday

- Scattered showers are expected to continue through the day Saturday, gradually tapering off from west to east, making for a damp evening for our trick-or-treaters.

- Another round of rainfall and potentially organized thunderstorms looks to arrive Monday into Tuesday as a potent cold front approaches by the middle of next week.

Discussion

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As this work week approaches its end, the ridging over the south- central CONUS will be nudged east and out of our region as a shortwave trough takes shape on its western flank over New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. This troughing will drift northeast into the early weekend, with a vaguely defined weakness over Kansas and into the Ozarks. This position as well as the pseudo-zonal flow aloft and southerly surface flow will inject sufficient moisture into the ArkLaTex to support shower development for Halloween.

In the meantime, before this pattern shift, mild temperatures and quiet conditions will continue, with overnight lows dropping into the middle 50s east to lower 60s west. As the shortwave emerges to our west, moisture being steered into the region will favor more consistent cloud cover, trending mostly cloudy to overcast overnight and continuing into tomorrow, which will help moderate temperatures, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s north and west to lower 80s southeast.

The arrival of rainfall has accelerated slightly on the most recent NBM consensus, favoring arrival as soon as Friday afternoon and evening for our westernmost zones of deep east Texas, spreading areawide overnight and continuing through the day Saturday. Also of note, PoPs have trended upwards into the 50 to 70 percent range, indicating increasing confidence. Bear in mind, this is not representative of coverage, which may still trend spotty to scattered. Trends still favor rain coming to an end from west to east after sunset, but the speed of this clearing is still uncertain, and area trick-or-treaters ought to be prepared to dodge some showers. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible. A few lingering showers are possible towards dawn Sunday across our easternmost zones, with a dry second half of the weekend to follow.

The shortwave looks on track to push east through the day Sunday, leaving the remainder of the weekend quiet and warm as a quickly building ridge sets up and is promptly ushered to the east by the next system taking shape over the Pacific Northwest. As a closed low makes its way east over the Rockies, its associated trough will dig southwards, maintaining the closed low as it ejects east over the southern Plains of north Texas and Oklahoma. Compared to previous runs, the latest GFS depicts a reduced deepening of the low, but extended southward reach of the amplified trough. The closed low, if it retains its definition, looks to keep along the I-40 corridor from Oklahoma into Arkansas, keeping the ArkLaTex in a southwest flow regime aloft with southerly surface flow as the attendant cold front approaches. Bearing in mind that numerous variables remain in play, rainfall chances look to increase Monday afternoon into Tuesday night, with the latest GFS and Euro actually in agreement that the best chance for an organized line of storms looks to be around mid-day Tuesday. As of this writing, the confidence has not yet increased enough to advertise an organized threat, but as we enter our fall severe weather season, we are closely monitoring the evolving forecast for early next week.

Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near- seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s by mid to late next week.

/26/

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For the 30/00z TAF update: Despite some lower clouds across portions of the area, VFR conditions should prevail throughout this TAF period. That being said, BKN to OVC skies currently prevail, and we will see OVC take over all terminals this evening and into the overnight hours, which will then hang on through the rest of the period. Winds will be light throughout this period, and generally out of the east. There is some potential of some rainfall towards the end of the period, but will wait on future updates to introduce it once timing becomes more clear. /33/

Spotter information statement

Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today in the event of wildfire development. /15/

Preliminary point temps/pops

SHV 62 79 62 78 / 10 0 40 60 MLU 57 82 62 81 / 0 0 40 50 DEQ 58 79 55 75 / 0 0 30 70 TXK 61 79 59 75 / 0 0 30 70 ELD 54 79 57 77 / 0 0 40 60 TYR 63 79 61 78 / 10 10 50 60 GGG 59 79 59 78 / 10 0 40 60 LFK 59 79 61 81 / 0 0 30 60

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. LA: None. OK: None. TX: None.