Mineral Springs, AR 71851 Weather

: New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT:

Key messages

Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Showers are expected to increase overnight through the day Saturday, before diminishing in time for the trick-or-treaters over East Texas and Western Louisiana this evening.

- Aside from the potential for isolated showers Sunday morning over Southcentral Arkansas and Eastcentral Louisiana, warm, humid, and dry conditions will return elsewhere to start the first day of November, which will carry over into Monday.

- The return of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region Tuesday, with the passage of a cold front. The potential for at least isolated strong storms will exist over at least the southern half of the area.

Discussion

Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Air mass moistening is underway early this morning as scattered areas of -RA continues to spread ENE across E TX/Wrn LA, along a NW to SE shortwave trough that extends from WCntrl OK into ECntrl TX. Sfc obs have depicted lowering cigs earlier this evening across Lower E TX/WCntrl LA due to increased low level moisture advection, with recent obs indicating that -RA is indeed reaching the ground with some of these light returns on the mosaic radar imagery, with additional -SHRA development expected overnight as this trough ejects NE through the Middle Red River Valley into extreme Ern TX/Wrn LA by daybreak. Even as this trough ejects NE out of the region by mid to late morning, weak isentropic ascent will contribute to additional scattered -SHRA development over the region, with the short term progs continuing to depict another weak perturbation in the flow regime traversing N TX/Srn OK this afternoon and into the region. Thus, additional convection development will be possible through the afternoon, before diminishing from W to E during the evening as this disturbance exits the region. Trick-or-treaters in E TX/Wrn LA should see the -SHRA diminishing early this evening, with the remainder of the area expected to see more hit or miss -SHRA with impacts minimal through the evening/overnight hours.

While the morning low clouds/-DZ should lift by midday/early afternoon, a very moist air mass will linger and result in a mix of clouds and sun with much warmer (above normal) temps near 80/lower 80s, especially as ridging aloft begins to build and shift E into the region from the Srn Plains. This will occur ahead of longwave troughing that will traverse the Great Basin Sunday before entering the Rockies/Four Corners Region by Monday morning, before amplifying further as it enters the Srn Plains Monday night/Tuesday morning. The latest 00Z medium range guidance continues to slow the Ewd progression of this system towards our area, with impacts delayed until late Monday night across the NW zones, and across the remainder of the region Tuesday. Convection should begin to deepen along and just E of the dryline Monday afternoon over W TX/Cntrl OK, before the attendant cold front overtakes the dryline Monday night and allows the convection to spread E into the region. While some severe risk will be possible Monday afternoon over from portions of N TX into Cntrl OK, the storms should weaken as they move into SE OK/NE TX late as SB instability weakens with the loss of diurnal heating.

With the timing consensus remaining similar to previous model runs with the convection moving through the area during the day Tuesday, enough of an instability return from additional low level moisture advection and daytime insolation may result in the threat for at least isolated strong storms over portions of the area Tuesday, which continues to be hinted by the various AI and ML guidance. This zone of deeper convection will provide the best potential for widespread wetting rains over the entire forecast period, with QPF amounts of 1-2+ inches possible. In the wake of this system and cold frontal passage, cooler and drier conditions will return, with near seasonal temps expected through the end of the new work week.

15

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For the 31/06Z TAF update, ceilings to lower to IFR/LIFR through today, persisting through this evening as a disturbance moves across the region. Additionally, VCSH conditions and light east-southeast winds expected across area terminals through the period. /05/

Spotter information statement

Issued at 112 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight. /15/

Preliminary point temps/pops

SHV 70 64 81 65 / 60 20 10 0 MLU 76 63 79 64 / 30 50 20 0 DEQ 69 61 79 62 / 60 40 10 0 TXK 69 61 79 63 / 60 40 10 0 ELD 71 61 79 62 / 50 50 20 0 TYR 73 63 82 66 / 60 10 10 0 GGG 71 62 82 64 / 60 10 10 0 LFK 76 64 83 65 / 50 10 10 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. LA: None. OK: None. TX: None.