Elizabeth, LA 70638 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Dry conditions with warm afternoons and cool nights will continue through Thursday.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated each afternoon through Thursday, due to continuing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20-60%.

- Rain chances return to the forecast late Friday into Saturday.

Discussion

(This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

At the surface, high pressure over the Mid Atlantic seaboard extends into the southeastern states, with easterly flow prevailing. Aloft, a ridge centered over the Gulf is supporting westerly to southwesterly flow, advecting moisture into the region and increasing upper level cloud cover. Surface flow has helped bring in drier air, as reflected by lower dewpoints and RH values. However, this drying will be short lived, with moisture returning to the lower levels Friday into Saturday.

An upper level wave will help transport moisture associated with the remnants of a Pacific tropical system into the region Friday and Saturday, coinciding with another surge of moisture from the Gulf. These features will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast PWATs will increase to 1.75 to 2.0 inches, above the 90th percentile for this time of year. While rain chances have remained relatively the same, forecast rainfall amounts have trended downward, contributing to uncertainty in QPF. Deterministic 24 hour rainfall totals for Saturday range from around a tenth of an inch to just over a half inch, while 48 hour (not 24h) probabilities of receiving at least 0.25 inches of rain range from 30 to 65 percent. Despite the downward trend in forecast amounts, locally heavy rainfall will remain possible, prompting WPC to introduce a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall. This will bear watching, particularly given that some areas that could potentially receive heavier rainfall are currently experiencing exceptional (level 4 of 4) drought.

Rain chances will decrease from Saturday into late Monday before increasing again as an upper level cutoff low progresses eastward from the Pacific into the Central Plains, accompanied by a cold front moving through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Current probabilities of receiving at least 1 inch of rainfall range from 25 to 60 percent across the forecast area. In addition to the potential for heavy rainfall, increasing wind shear could support a severe weather threat with this system. Both the heavy rainfall and severe weather potential will need to be monitored as the system evolves and forecast confidence increases.

Maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above to well above normal through most of the forecast period ahead of the frontal passage next week. Temperatures are expected to trend closer to seasonal normals behind the front.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the TAF period. RH values at the surface will stay low enough to limit fog formation but a few areas of patchy fog can't be ruled out. Overcast cloud decks will move in overnight but will be around 20 kft before slowly dropping. Winds will be light and from the east.

Marine

Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A light to moderate easterly flow continues into early next week, with occasional gusts to 15-20 kts possible Friday into the weekend as the pressure gradient briefly tightens. Small craft should continue to exercise caution through this period, especially across the outer coastal waters. Friday afternoon/evening, rain chances return and remain elevated through Saturday as a surge of moisture overspreads the region.

Fire weather

Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Dry conditions continue across the area, with afternoon minimum RH expected to be in the 20-50 percent range again today while winds remain light from the east. Fuels remain very dry due to ongoing drought, but higher humidity and cooler temperatures the past few days has allowed ERC values to fall to 70th-80th percentile, which should help limit fire danger somewhat compared to much of the past few weeks. RH values will start increasing again Friday as a surge of moisture arrives, bringing with it a return of rain chances to the area late Friday through Saturday.

The latest drought monitor released this morning showed a class degradation for parts of the CWA, with an expansion of the D3 Extreme Drought class and addition of a D4 Exceptional Drought across portions of CenLA. Although we could see a return of showers and storms this weekend and early next week, the probabilities of receiving a wetting (0.25 in) rain are between 30 and 65% this weekend and the probabilities of receiving an inch of rain early next week are between 25 and 60%. While this could assist in not seeing further degradations, its not expected to move the needle towards improvements.

Watches, warnings and advisories

LA: None. TX: None. GM: None.