Lawtell, LA 70550 Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Dry conditions with warm afternoons and cool nights will continue through Thursday.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated each afternoon through Thursday, due to continuing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 30-60%.

- Rain chances return to the forecast late Friday into Saturday.

Discussion

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A quiet and seasonal night is ongoing across the forecast area as surface high pressure continues to maintain control across much of the eastern CONUS, providing light winds and temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Aloft, elongated ridging continues to provide a west to west-southwest flow above 500mb, advecting high clouds and a bit of moisture into the region. 00Z LCH sounding shows a PWAT of 1.31", which is just below to 75th percentile for today however, an influx of dry air is expected later today, providing a short lived drying trend before another surge of moisture arrives tomorrow.

Today, low level easterly flow should advect a drier, continental airmass into the region briefly shunting the moisture overhead off to the west and allowing PWATs to dip below 1" through this afternoon. This will bring about a warm but rather pleasant afternoon/evening across much of the region with dewpoints dropping into the 50s while highs top out in the low to mid 80s. Unfortunately, this will be brief as moisture returns quickly and in earnest tomorrow and remaining elevated into early next week.

Tomorrow into Saturday, a couple of features simultaneously bring a surge of moisture into the region, merging overhead and increasing rain chances as we head into Halloween weekend. First, an upper level shortwave carrying the remnants of TD Vance in the Pacific (or rather the moisture associated with TD Vance) will move into the Southern Plains late tomorrow into early Saturday. At the same time, a surge of moisture will move out of the southeastern Gulf from a decaying low pressure system near south FL and overspread the northern Gulf Coast. These two moisture rich atmospheres will mesh overhead from tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning, with guidance depicting PWATs increasing to around ~1.70" (90th percentile is 1.69") by 12Z Saturday and even further through the daytime hours on Saturday. While this will unfortunately bring about humid conditions through the weekend, it will also finally bring some much needed rain chances back to the forecast. We could see some very isolated shower activity through late Friday into early Saturday however, the better chance of rain will come through midday into the evening hours of Saturday with a few showers possibly lingering into Saturday night mainly for CENLA. Unfortunately guidance continues to come down on rainfall amounts, with most of the region likely seeing less than 0.25" of rain, apart from an isolated location or two. While this won't be enough to put any dent in the ongoing severe drought, it will help tamper down fire risk for a while.

While rain chances taper off by early Sunday, this influx of moisture will hang around until the passage of a cold front late Tuesday. Until then, warm and humid conditions can be expected with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s (5-10 degrees above seasonal norms). With moisture lingering, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and dewpoints in the 60s as well. Finally, Tuesday's front does look to bring us a more substantial chance for rainfall followed by a welcomed period of dry and cool conditions Wed through the end of the week. In addition, there also looks to be an accompanied threat for some strong to severe storms with frontal passage. Still a bit early to iron out details, but definitely something to watch over the coming days.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Patchy, shallow ground fog has developed across parts of the region this morning. This fog is no thicker than a few feet in most areas resulting in dramatic swings in automated surface visibility observations as the fog lifts and falls above and below the sensors. This fog will be quick to dissipate after sunrise with visibilities again unlimited by 13Z. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter through the day along with light easterly winds. SCT to BKN high clouds will continue to stream across the region thorugh the day and into tonight.

Jones

Marine

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A light to moderate easterly flow continues into early next week, with occasional gusts to 15-20 kts possible Friday into the weekend as the pressure gradient briefly tightens. Small craft should continue to exercise caution through this period, especially across the outer coastal waters. Friday afternoon/evening, rain chances return and remain elevated through Saturday as a surge of moisture overspreads the region.

Fire weather

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Dry conditions continue across the area, with afternoon minimum RH expected to be in the 30-45 percent range again today while winds remain light from the east. Fuels remain very dry due to ongoing drought, but higher humidity and cooler temperatures the past few days has allowed ERC values to fall to 70th-80th percentile, which should help limit fire danger somewhat compared to much of the past few weeks. RH values will start increasing again Friday as a surge of moisture arrives, bringing with it a return of rain chances to the area late Friday through Saturday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

LA: None. TX: None. GM: None.