Sarben, NE 69165 Weather

Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant- Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan- Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier- Western Cherry- 256 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 /156 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central Nebraska.

Day one

Tonight.

Fog development is possible overnight tonight. Visibilities may reach around a mile or less. The main area of concern for fog is west of a line from Callaway to Gordon.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

Fog with visibilities as low as a mile or less is possible west of a line from Callaway to Gordon through midday.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday into the weekend, with additional precipitation chances expected early next week. The threat for severe weather remains low at this time.

Strong northerly winds are possible Monday and Tuesday across the area. Gusts up to 45 to 55 MPH are possible with the highest gusts over the central and western Sandhills.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Key messages

- Fog is possible tonight, generally along and west of a line from Callaway to Gordon.

- There is a chance for showers Friday night into Saturday morning with the greatest threat east of a line from Merriman to Imperial.

- After dry conditions Saturday afternoon into Sunday, a strong storm system will cross the central plains Sunday night into Tuesday night bringing precipitation chances to the area. There is also a threat for strong northerly winds Monday and Tuesday with gust potential over 50 MPH in the Sandhills.

- Precipitation may linger into Wednesday across eastern areas, however forecast confidence is low.

Synopsis

Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A fairly low amplitude pattern was present across the CONUS this morning. A shortwave was located over the big bend of Texas. Closed low pressure was located just off the coast of Vancouver BC. A shortwave trough was present approximately 300 miles off the coast of northern California. Across the central CONUS this morning a fairly zonal pattern extended from the central and northern Rockies, east to New England and the Mid- Atlantic states. At the surface this afternoon: high pressure was located from the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota and far northeastern Nebraska and NW Iowa. A stationary front was anchored from near Garden City Kansas to Kansas City MO. North of this boundary, a broad shield of stratus was present over northern Kansas and far SW Nebraska. Across the forecast area today, skies were mainly clear with the exception of Chase and portions of Hayes counties. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 61 degrees at Grant, to 64 degrees at Ainsworth, O'Neill, and Valentine.

Short term

Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Surface high pressure will track east from the eastern Dakotas and northeastern Nebraska tonight. Behind this exiting feature, easterly, then southeasterly winds will lift low level moisture north into the area from Kansas. A warm front will also lift north into the area, making it as far north as I-80 Friday morning. With the low level moisture advection overnight, stratus development appears likely with fog formation possible. With the latest models indicating stratus extending well west of the area into the western panhandle, feel the greatest threat for fog is over western and southwestern Nebraska. The latest 12z HRRR has a decent fog signal west of highway 83 tonight, however feel the lowest visibilities should be off to the west of the area tonight. That being said, will hold off on any fog headlines for tonight, however I did insert a mention of fog for locations west of a line from Callaway to Gordon. In addition to fog overnight, forecast soundings indicate a rather deep dry layer above the boundary layer overnight tonight into Friday morning. With the expected low level moisture advection overnight and the degree of the dry layer aloft, went ahead and inserted a mention of drizzle for tonight through midday Friday. After midday Friday, mid level moisture will increase from the south as an upper level disturbance approaches Kansas and eastern Colorado. With this mid level moisture, the threat for drizzle should end across the area. With strong low level moisture advection tonight, lows will be fairly mild with readings in the mid to upper 40s. With abundant cloud cover expected on Friday, highs will struggle to get out of the 50s. The before mentioned shortwave will approach south central, then southeastern Nebraska Friday night. Precipitation chances will increase from south central into the eastern half of Nebraska Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As for precipitation chances, generally held these at low end chance (30-40 percent) as forecast QPF is confined to far eastern and southeastern portions of the forecast area. This seems to agree with the latest NBM probabilities for 24 hr precipitation exceedance. For the period ending at 7 PM CDT Saturday, there is only a 40% chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation east of highway 183.

Long term

Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A transitory, low amplitude ridge overnight Saturday into Sunday, will bring a brief period of mainly dry conditions to the area. However, gusty southerly winds east of a deepening surface trough will continue to push low level moisture into the forecast area from the south leading to mostly cloudy conditions across the area on Sunday. This expected cloud cover will lead to highs only reaching around 60 for most areas. Some mid 60s may be achieved in the northwest, INVOF the surface trough where some limited clearing is possible by Sunday afternoon. The latest GFS and NAM12 solns have PWATS approaching > than 0.90 inches Sunday afternoon. This is well above the max percentile for KLBF November 1st per sounding climatology. Showers and even embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage Sunday night into Monday as a lead disturbance lifts into central and eastern Nebraska. The latest NBM ensemble forecast has a 90+% chance of reaching at least a quarter inch of 24 hr QPF ending at 6 PM CT Monday for locations along and east of highway 83. That being said, 90+ pops are on track for these areas. Further west to the panhandle, there is a 90+% chance of reaching 0.10" of QPF during the same time frame. Initialized likely pops for these areas looks good based on the deterministic and NBM ensembles. One final note, the latest ECMWF ensemble has EFI of 0.8 to 0.9 and and SOT of 1-2 over northeastern portions of the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, so will have to continue to monitor the northeast for heavy rain potential. Finally, gusty northerly winds appear probable Monday and Tuesday. Both days have a better than 80% chance of exceeding wind gusts over 30 MPH per the latest NBM ensemble forecast. Locations over the central and western Sandhills have a 50- 70% chance of exceeding wind gusts of 50 MPH Monday and Tuesday. Will highlight the wind threat in the latest HWO. After Tuesday, there is a continued threat for showers, mainly over eastern portions of the forecast area. Highs per the WPC initialization are in the lower 50s Wednesday and Thursday. This is near the 25%ile of the NBM forecast. Based on the deterministic 12 z GFS and 00z EC solns, the WPC forecast leans heavily on the EC soln late next week.

Aviation

Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The main aviation concern will be lowering ceilings to IFR by 10Z at KLBF.

For the KLBF terminal: Clouds will increase beginning this evening with MVFR ceilings by 03Z, and IFR ceilings by 10Z along with some patchy fog and drizzle. Visibilities may fall off to 3 to 5 SM with ceilings of 500 to 700 FT AGL.

For the KVTN terminal: Ceilings will fall overnight, becoming MVFR by 13Z Friday morning with cloud decks around 2000 FT AGL.

Cloud cover is expected to persist into Friday afternoon with only modest increases in ceilings at KLBF and KVTN.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.