Smithfield, NE 68976 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas.

Day one

Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the outlook area Thursday evening through Friday night, then again Sunday night into Monday. The overall threat for severe weather remains low at this time.

More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Key messages

- Overall quiet conditions expected tonight into the daytime hours on Thursday: with increasing chances for rain and some thunderstorms returning Thursday evening into Friday morning.

- Should see a lull in activity during the day on Friday, before another stronger upper level disturbance brings additional rain/storm chances mainly Friday evening into at least part of the day on Saturday. The overall threat for severe weather both Thursday and Friday remains low.

- A stronger upper level system is working its way through the western CONUS this weekend, looking to take aim on the Plains as we get into the start of the new work week. Still plenty of details to work out with the evolution/track of this system, but there is the potential for some notable rainfall across a good portion of the region.

Discussion

Issued at 411 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Currently through tonight:

Was a dreary start to the day today across the area, with plentiful low-level stratus, and even some drizzle/foggy conditions across mainly WNW portions. The fog diminished largely by mid-morning: the stratus a bit more stubborn, with a couple of lingering stripes across central and SErn portions keeping skies partly-mostly cloudy: elsewhere is plenty of sun. Looking aloft, seeing generally west-southwesterly flow in place: set up between broad ridging along the East Coast and broad troughing over the western CONUS: with satellite imagery showing an embedded shortwave trough working its way east across the Dakotas/Central Plains. The accompanying surface cold front continues to push southeast across the area: here at mid- afternoon has worked its way through roughly have of the forecast area. The timing of this front and lingering cloud cover has resulted in quite a temp gradient across the area: with mid-60s across the NNWrn half and near 80 in the far SE corner.

The rest of this afternoon into tonight: this front will continue sinking south, with models showing it stalling as it moves into central KS, losing its upper level push. There may be a brief period closer to 00Z were isolated precip could develop along the front, potentially clipping far SE portions of mainly Mitchell County: but models keep the better chances just off to our SE. Expecting overall quiet conditions through the rest of this evening/overnight: and not out of the question there could be patchy fog again early Thursday AM.

Thursday through this weekend: .

During the daytime hours on Thursday, much of the forecast area is still looking to see dry conditions. Models showing shortwave upper level ridging pushing across the region: ahead of a disturbance that will be working its way NNE out of Mexico into the TX/NM border region. Late in the afternoon, not out of the question some isolated precipitation could develop across far SSWrn portions of the forecast area: but better chances look to hold off until the evening/overnight hours, spreading across the rest of the forecast area as the low-level jet/WAA increases. Instability remains in the area, keeping the potential for thunderstorms in the forecast: but the overall threat for severe weather remains low.

As we get into the daytime hours on Friday: precip from the overnight hours should wane/shift off to the east, leaving a relative lull in activity, before the next round moves in. Just how long of a lull this ends up being still has some uncertainties: models at 00Z Saturday showing the main upper level disturbance is just off to our SSW. Thinking is at least scattered activity will be working its way into southern portions of the forecast area: some models hint at it being well into our Neb. counties by 00Z as well. Some details still to be ironed out. The overall best/widespread chances are still focused in the 00Z-12Z Saturday time frame. Threat for thunderstorms also remains, but again the overall threat for severe weather is low: the forecast area remains just in the General Thunderstorm area for both the SPC Days 2 and 3 outlooks.

The main upper level disturbance continues to work its way across the Central Plains on Saturday: and preciptiation chances look to be waning with time from west to east. Confidence in the exact timing of when precip comes to an end is not high, forecast chances are only 20 percent by late in the day Saturday/Sat evening. The daytime hours on Sunday look to mainly be quiet.

As far as temperatures go through the end of the week- weekend: highs for Thu-Fri looking to range from the low 60s NW to low 70s SE, with the weekend mainly in the low-mid 60s.

Early next week:

Models continuing to show the potential for a larger, stronger upper level system to work its way through the western CONUS during the upcoming weekend: .driving precipitation chances as we get into Sunday night on through the start of the new work week. Larger scale models still showing plenty of differences with the finer details of the troughing through the Rockies and the evolution of the deeper upper level low that looks to develop over the Plains. Some hint at more of a single, main low trekking through the heart of the Central Plains: others showing flow/energy may end up more split. Either way results in pretty low confidence as far as precipitation chance/amount details go. A more organized low, depending on its track/location of the main deformation zone, could bring a notable focused swath of rainfall (at least a couple inches not out of the question): a more split pattern could bring more scattered, potentially lower amounts. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days for anyone with outdoor activities early next week.

Aviation

Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is a chance (around 30%) of fog between 08z and 17z. Generally expect the fog to be light (5SM to 6SM) but there is a small chance it could be more dense (closer to 1SM or 2SM). Winds are expected to transition from the northwest to the east southeast with some gusts up to around 15 knots possible around 21z.

Watches, warnings and advisories

NE: None. KS: None.