Shelby, NE 68662 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas.

Day one

Tonight.

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from midnight until 11 AM Saturday for Gosper, Dawson, Buffalo, Sherman, Valley, Howard, Greeley, and Nance counties. Please refer to advisory text for further information.

- Thunderstorm potential: Through roughly 4 AM Saturday morning, mainly spotty/isolated and weak thunderstorms could occur almost anywhere in our forecast area.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from midnight until 11 AM Saturday for Gosper, Dawson, Buffalo, Sherman, Valley, Howard, Greeley, and Nance counties. Please refer to advisory text for further information.

- Potential for strong thunderstorms and strong winds early next week: Late Sunday night through Monday evening, thunderstorm chances return to our entire area. Although still a few days away and thus subject to some forecast uncertainties, it currently appears that especially eastern portions of our forecast area could see a few strong to perhaps even severe storms.

This same storm system also appears that it will bring fairly strong winds to our area, both from the south-southeast during the day Monday, and then from the north-northwest Monday night into Tuesday. The overall-strongest winds are currently projected to occur with the north-northwest winds on the backside of the system, with sustained speeds of at least 30 MPH, and gusts of at least 40-50 MPH.

More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Key messages

- Tonight: As a weak warm front north through our forecast area, areas of at least light fog and possibly pockets of dense fog (visibility 1/4 mile or less) could develop: primarily in counties north of Interstate 80.

- Also tonight: Patchy drizzle along with isolated-scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms could occur almost anywhere

- Saturday-Sunday: Although it certainly won't rain "non-stop", potential for isolated-scattered rain showers persists especially Saturday daytime-night, with Sunday daytime a "mostly dry" break in between upper waves.

- Sunday night-Tues night: A large-scale upper level low pressure system and associated strong surface low gradually trudges eastward through the Central Plains, bringing first a combo of somewhat-strong southerly winds, widespread rain and POSSIBLE strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms to our area, then followed by fairly strong north-northwest behind a cold front Mon night-Tuesday (gusts 40-50 MPH possible).

- Wednesday-Friday: In theory, this marks a "largely dry" stretch in the wake of the early-week system. However, it's not necessarily "guaranteed dry", as it's possible that a pesky/minor upper wave or two could pass through.

- Temperature-wise next 7 days: An overall "typical" late- Oct/early-Nov pattern with high temps mostly a mix of 50s/60s, but with low temps leaning toward the warmer side of things with lows mainly ranging upper 30s-mid 50s (STILL no truly hard/killing freeze in sight for those places that didn't have one back on Oct. 17th)

Discussion

Issued at 414 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES:

As evidenced by the fairly lengthly list of KEY MESSAGES above, our weather pattern remains quite active. On a positive note, although bringing more beneficial rain (at least longer term beneficial) with most of our forecast area (CWA) very generally expected to receive at least 1-2" of rain between tonight and Tuesday, in the shorter-term this pattern is obviously wreaking havoc for those trying to wrap up/continue harvest. For those folks, HOPEFULLY the latter half of next week continues to maintain its current MOSTLY dry look.

As for key forecast uncertainties:

- Of note in the very short term: Will at least patchy dense fog impact our northern counties (mainly north of I-80) overnight?

- Looking into early next week: certainly the "highlight" of the entire 7-day forecast right now is to what degree we are impacted by the large-scale/strong/deep low pressure system mainly Sunday night-Tuesday. While widespread rain and moderately-strong winds (both ahead of and behind it) are looking increasingly likely, what is still a SOMEWHAT- CONCERNING UNKNOWN is whether (or not) we see a round of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms along the advancing cold front/surface low pressure system Monday afternoon-early evening? At this time, various models (ECMWF/GFS/NAM) suggest that both instability and perhaps to some degree deep-layer shear could be on the lower-end of the spectrum for any kind of "higher end" severe storm threat, but these trends bear close watching. At least for now, SPC has kept it's 15 percent "slight risk equivalent" area slightly south-southeast of our CWA on the latest Day 4 (Monday) severe storm outlook, but tools such as CSU machine learning severe probs currently paint at least low chances within primarily the eastern half of our CWA. Obviously these details will surely come into better focus over the weekend and Monday nears.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. Nov. 6):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM: Overall no big surprises today. In short, the morning saw a smattering of weak thunderstorms mainly in our far east-central counties, along with some dense fog in southwesterly counties. In the wake of these things, much of the late-morning through mid-afternoon was simply continued cloudy under fairly widespread low stratus. However, especially within the last hour another round of very spotty showers/perhaps a few rumbles of thunder have started affecting mainly part of our KS zones, as water vapor satellite/short-term model data confirm that the leading edge of lift is arriving from the next/incoming upper wave lifting our way out of the Southern High Plains/western KS area. At the surface, a weak warm front is evident lifting very slowly north through our KS zones, with winds to its south trying to turn more southerly with time, while most of our CWA is reporting light (5-10 MPH) southeast winds north of the boundary. High temps on track to top out 60s most areas, but ranging from upper 50s far north (Ord area) to low 70s far southeast (Thayer/Mitchell/Jewell counties).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Sticking to the basics: High confidence in continued widespread stratus clouds with some patchy drizzle almost anywhere, with at least isolated-scattered showers/weak thunderstorms also lifting north into more of our area and possible almost anywhere. Certainly the MAIN CONCERN overnight is whether fog becomes dense enough to warrant a possible Advisory: which would seem most favored to occur within our Nebraska counties along/especially north of I-80. Given only medium confidence in truly widespread/truly dense fog development, we've opted to hold off for now on any formal Advisory, but fog is obviously highlighted as a possible concern here and in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Breezes overnight turn more southerly as the warm front lifts north.

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: These 24 hours are simply best described as "a varied mix of dry weather interspersed with passing showers". It's just impossible to truly guarantee any particular area to remain dry more than a few hours at a time, given persistent weak lift from the upper wave lifting east-northeast through our region. Put another way, trick-or-treaters should be ready for some passing (mainly light) rain showers, just in case. Compared to today, south- southeast winds will be a little breezier, with sustained speeds commonly 10-15 MPH and gusts up to around 20 MPH. High temps were largely unchanged with most areas a few degrees either side of 60 degrees, while lows Saturday night were nudged up slightly to mainly low-mid 50s given widespread clouds.

- SUNDAY DAYTIME: Although we cannot totally rule out some very spotty showers or patchy drizzle, for the most part this should be a brief "dry break" in between systems. With continued plentiful clouds, temps will only climb very slightly at best, with most areas aimed low-mid 60s.

- SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: See above for various references to this ~ 60 hour time frame, as a large-scale/strong upper level trough and associated surface low crosses the Central Plains. Possible hazards include strong (maybe severe?) thunderstorms and moderately-strong winds. Temperature-wise, highs mainly 60s-70s Monday, then only 50s Tuesday behind the cold front.

- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: While especially those trying to finish/continue harvest really need to "cheer" for this to remain a dry/mostly dry stretch (and confidence is high that it WILL BE mostly dry), there are some hints that a weak wave or two could bring pesky shower chances from time to time. High temps mainly 50s.

Aviation

Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings will be expected to remain sub-VFR through the period with overcast conditions retaining. Cloud bases currently reside between 500-1,000ft with bases expected to remain in this range for a majority of the night (through at least 10z). Bases during the day time Saturday will primarily range the 1,000-1,500ft range for KEAR and the 1,500-2,000ft range for KGRI.

As for visibility, though fog is possible across a portion of central Nebraska tonight, it is uncertain how long if at all dense fog may linger in the KEAR/KGRI vicinity. The worst visibilities reductions should generally come in between the 3-9z timeframe.

Light rain and/or drizzle will be possible through the period with the potential for light showers increasing during the day Saturday. The chance for thunder will be limited (not 0%).

Surface winds will stay out of the south to southeast across the period. Winds speeds overnight and across the early Saturday morning hours will be light (<10kts). Speeds increasing during the later morning to early Saturday afternoon hours will peak between 10-15kts with gusts as high as 25kts possible after 15z.

Watches, warnings and advisories

NE: None. KS: None.