Stafford, KS 67578 Weather

Key messages

- Another foggy morning for a portion of the forecast area. Otherwise, mild highs today. Scattered showers later in the the day.

- Isolated showers Saturday, otherwise turning drier Sunday. Mild temperatures both days.

- Unsettled weather Monday and Tuesday with more bouts of showers and perhaps isolated thunder. Drier weather Wednesday onward.

Discussion

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Moist upslope easterly flow is occurring north of a stationary boundary that is located across western Kansas. This moist upslope flow is resulting in another night of dense fog across a portion of the forecast area. This is the most immediate concern through the morning hours. Eventually, this stationary boundary will eventually lift northward as a warm front as the day continues. Winds will eventually turn southerly in the wake of this warm front. Otherwise, highs today will be mild with values peaking in the 60s. Attention then turns to the afternoon and evening hours. Currently, satellite water vapor channel shows a large upper level trof moving across Texas. This feature will continue to move closer to Kansas as the day progresses. Moisture advection will occur downstream of this feature with PWATs increasing in the 1.20" to 1.40" across Kansas by evening. Increasing PWATs and warm air advection will set the stage for scattered showers to move across Kansas this afternoon and evening. Amounts will be the lowest across the northern zones with values in the 0.05" to 0.15" range. The highest amounts are expected across the Oklahoma border with amounts in the 0.25" to 0.50" range. Severe weather is not expected due to poor lapse rates and meager instability.

For Saturday, there still could be isolated showers as a weak wave persists near the region along with fairly high PWATs. By Sunday, models indicate that shortwave ridging will develop across the Great Plains. This would result in a drier and warmer forecast as we close out the weekend period. Highs over the weekend will be primarily in the 60s, although low 70s cannot be ruled out on Sunday in the south. Lows will range from the 40s in the west to the 50s in the east.

Long term models and their ensemble counterparts are showing a second large upper level trof moving across the western United States Sunday. This UL feature should move across Kansas during the Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning period. It should be noted that several ensemble members are indicating the passage of an open and progressive upper level wave. There has been a noted trend in keeping this wave open and not closed and deep anymore. If this continues to hold true, rainfall amounts and winds would be less impressive than compared to a previously advertised deep and closed system. Regardless, unsettled weather looks on track for Monday and Tuesday. Beyond that, the ensembles are in better agreement with an upper level ridge to prevail with a drier and warmer forecast as a result.

Aviation

Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dense fog at the onset of this TAF period will lift north and eventually dissolve all together by late morning, but rain showers will move in from the south by early to mid afternoon. All airports will carry VCSH initially with prevailing rain showers for a 4 or 5 hour period late this afternoon through the mid evening hours. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible, but most likely farther south, so only LBL airport will carry a PROB30 for thunder with this event. Amendments will be needed should the lightning activity be greater than currently forecast. Aviation weather will continue to be poor even through the end of this period 12Z Saturday with low stratus rebuilding back in after the rain moves out.

Watches, warnings and advisories

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today for KSZ030- 031-043>046-061>066-074>081.