Ransom, KS 67572 Weather

Key messages

- A few thunderstorms possible this evening with gusty winds across south-central Kansas.

- Tropical moisture advection on Friday will lead to widespread showers.

- An interaction of two lows will lead to rain and a potential for gusty winds Sunday through Tuesday.

Update

Issued at 657 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low level upslope easterly flow exists north of a stationary boundary located across western Kansas. This will set the stage for another night of dense fog. Oakley is already at 1/4 mile and Hays is at 1 1/2 mile. Think the fog will continue to expand through the overnight hours. Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory to account for this foggy situation across the northern zones.

Discussion

Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Fog and low stratus have lifted across the area through this morning. Satellite and surface observations at 18z show a weak cyclone right over the forecast area. This weak circulation is leading to warming temperatures across south-central Kansas and cooler temperatures and remaining cloud cover across the west. This differential heating boundary from west to east across the area could serve as a focus for isolated thunderstorm development in south-central Kansas late this afternoon and early evening. Only slight chance POPs were added to highlight this risk. Lacking mid to upper level support should prevent storm organization, so severe weather is not anticipated. However, cannot rule out a stronger storm or two with a strong wind gust potential given increasing DCAPE and LLLRs. Any storms will diminish into the evening hours with loss of daytime heating.

The next potential for widespread rainfall will come on Friday when a weak storm system south of the area advects moisture northward. Light rain would be the expectation for the forecast area. NBM POPs are up around 70-90+% and while the intensity would be low, seems reasonable given strong consensus in the guidance. Rainfall totals of 0.20-0.75" are in the forecast, with higher end of that range in southern counties, and lower totals to the north and west counties.

The bigger storm system is still progged to move into the Plains Sunday and into the start of next week. Global deterministic models and their ensembles continue to show a deepening trough emerging across the Western U.S late this weekend. There appears to be two components to this system, a southern wave and a northern wave. How these components interact will determine how impacts evolve for our area. While uncertainty still remains the evolution of the system and/or systems, globals seem to be on board with a split surface low pattern. One system develops and tracks through the northern Plains, and the other develops and tracks south of the forecast area. If this solution were to occur, this would put us in an in between phase which will complicate how much rainfall occurs and overall impacts to the area. Nevertheless, an unsettled pattern, with increasing POPs and gusty winds are in the cards Sunday through Tuesday morning.

Aviation

Issued at 517 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A weak surface boundary is forecast to slowly lift north across southwest Kansas tonight. Given the forecast position this will result in light southerly winds for Dodge City, Garden City and Liberal. In the Hays area this boundary will be near or just south of the area overnight before lifting north of the I-70 corridor after 12z Friday. This will result in light and variable winds overnight. The low clouds and fog that is currently present at 23z Today at Hays will continue overnight and will gradually lower after 06z with LIFR conditions between 08z and 16z Friday. Further south the clouds will also increase and lower overnight as an area of showers and thunderstorms move towards southwest Kansas after daybreak. Much like Hays these lower ceilings that will precede the rain will spread into the area mainly after 06z Friday as areas of fog develop in the Garden City and Dodge City areas. Ceilings currently in these locations are expected to fall back to around 500ft AGL from 06z through 15z Friday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Friday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065.