Belpre, KS 67519 Weather

Key messages

- A few thunderstorms possible this evening with gusty winds across south-central Kansas.

- Tropical moisture advection on Friday will lead to widespread showers.

- An interaction of two lows will lead to rain and a potential for gusty winds Sunday through Tuesday.

Discussion

Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Fog and low stratus have lifted across the area through this morning. Satellite and surface observations at 18z show a weak cyclone right over the forecast area. This weak circulation is leading to warming temperatures across south-central Kansas and cooler temperatures and remaining cloud cover across the west. This differential heating boundary from west to east across the area could serve as a focus for isolated thunderstorm development in south-central Kansas late this afternoon and early evening. Only slight chance POPs were added to highlight this risk. Lacking mid to upper level support should prevent storm organization, so severe weather is not anticipated. However, cannot rule out a stronger storm or two with a strong wind gust potential given increasing DCAPE and LLLRs. Any storms will diminish into the evening hours with loss of daytime heating.

The next potential for widespread rainfall will come on Friday when a weak storm system south of the area advects moisture northward. Light rain would be the expectation for the forecast area. NBM POPs are up around 70-90+% and while the intensity would be low, seems reasonable given strong consensus in the guidance. Rainfall totals of 0.20-0.75" are in the forecast, with higher end of that range in southern counties, and lower totals to the north and west counties.

The bigger storm system is still progged to move into the Plains Sunday and into the start of next week. Global deterministic models and their ensembles continue to show a deepening trough emerging across the Western U.S late this weekend. There appears to be two components to this system, a southern wave and a northern wave. How these components interact will determine how impacts evolve for our area. While uncertainty still remains the evolution of the system and/or systems, globals seem to be on board with a split surface low pattern. One system develops and tracks through the northern Plains, and the other develops and tracks south of the forecast area. If this solution were to occur, this would put us in an inbetween phase which will complicate how much rainfall occurs and overall impacts to the area. Nevertheless, an unsettled pattern, with increasing POPs and gusty winds are in the cards Sunday through Tuesday morning.

Aviation

Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VIS are improving across the area and CIGs will start to rise through the early afternoon to IFR and then MVFR through 22z. Another round of lower CIGs and VISs are expected tonight beginning 04-06z Friday as more low clouds and fog develop. Flight categories have a high probability of lowering to LIFR again, mainly for DDC, GCK, and HYS. LBL has a bit more uncertainty. Small improvements in flight categories are expected through 18z Friday to area of IFR and MVFR. Any rain or storms this afternoon are expected to be away from the terminal sites, but a few thunderstorms are possible along a boundary across south- central Kansas this afternoon. Winds through the period will be light and variable 5-10 knots.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.