Aurora, KS 67417 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

More detailed information can be found at: www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Key messages

-Shower and Thunderstorm chances return late this afternoon and evening (30-60%).

- Shower and Thunderstorm chances linger Friday morning before widespread activity returns during the afternoon/evening while lingering through Saturday morning (50-80%).

- Another storm system will arrive late Sunday bringing increasing probabilities for rain and storms to eastern Kansas Monday and Tuesday (60-80%).

Discussion

Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A mid/upper ridge axis extended from the Lower Mississippi Valley area NNW across the Central Plains while a stationary front was bisecting Kansas early this afternoon. Low clouds and fog were observed north of the front impacting much of northern and western Kansas. This frontal boundary is progged to meander over the area through tonight before mixing northward as we move into the day on Friday. This is expected to result in another round of low ceilings and areas of fog developing along and north of the boundary again tonight. We may also see a sharp temperature gradient, especially where low clouds persist. Some elevated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central and northeast Kansas this evening and tonight, aided by a developing LLJ. PWATs are progged to rise to 1.25+ inches supporting efficient rainfall. We could see a strong storm or two with gusty winds and hail given elevated CAPE ~1500 J/KG this evening. The initial development could be over central KS before the activity focuses further north across northeast KS where we will see a higher potential for some pockets of excessive rain.

Some storms may be ongoing across parts of northeast KS early on Friday before we see a brief lull during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Increasing probabilities for rain are expected to return as we move into the afternoon and evening hours as a negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts northeast towards the area. With steep mid-lvl lapse rates initially progged, we could see some embedded thunderstorms at times, especially across northern KS later in the day and perhaps lingering into the evening hours. Some drier air could be wrapped into parts of southeast KS, limiting rainfall potential as we move into the evening and overnight hours as the system quickly lifts north of the area. Some low pops were maintained on Sat but lingering clouds should keep temperatures near climate normals with highs mostly in the 60s.

Shortwave ridging will return to the area on Sunday with mostly dry weather conditions anticipated during the day. With some breaks in the clouds, afternoon highs may rise into the lower 70s in some areas while parts of central and western KS will see more seasonable highs in the 60s. Another robust mid/upper trough is progged to build over the Rockies late Sunday/Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous Sunday night/early Monday morning as the exit region of the upper jet builds over the Southern Plains. The pattern may support a few strong/severe storms as we move through the day on Monday but given the potential for more widespread activity and potential training, pockets of heavy rain may be a bigger concern. High pops were maintained Mon night into Tuesday as numerous showers are anticipated under the upper low. A cold front will usher in more seasonable air as we move into Wed-Thu with highs in the low to mid 60s. Some low pops were maintained on Wed due to uncertainty in the timing of the mid/upper trough. Dry weather conditions are expected to return by late Wed into Thu.

Aviation

Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Still looking for a window for possible showers and storms impacting the terminals later this evening as the LLJ increases over the stationary boundary just south of the terminals. Thinking the broader coverage of showers and storms remains north of the terminals overnight with stratus impacting the terminals into the morning and possibly much of the day Friday. Confidence is too low regarding coverage and timing of possible showers and storms again Friday evening so have opted to not mention at this time. Will continue to assess the trends going into subsequent forecast periods.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.