Chautauqua, KS 67334 Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas, east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

Day one: This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight across portions of central and northeast Kansas. A strong storm or two with gusty winds and dime sized hail may be possible late this afternoon or early this evening.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are likely Friday through Saturday evening. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.

Increasing probabilities for showers and thunderstorms will return to the area Sunday night with activity lingering across the area through at least Tuesday.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

Key messages

- A few showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into tonight across mainly central KS.

- Widespread rainfall will develop across the area on Friday into Saturday and again Sunday night into Tuesday night.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through early next week with cooler more seasonable air Wed-Thu.

Discussion

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A mid/upper ridge axis extended from the Lower Mississippi Valley area NNW across the Central Plains while a stationary front was bisecting Kansas early this afternoon. Low clouds and fog were observed north of the front impacting much of northern and western Kansas. This frontal boundary is progged to meander over the area through tonight before mixing northward as we move into the day on Friday. This is expected to result in another round of low ceilings and areas of fog developing along and north of the boundary again tonight. We may also see a sharp temperature gradient, especially where low clouds persist. Some elevated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across parts of central and northeast Kansas this evening and tonight, aided by a developing LLJ. PWATs are progged to rise to 1.25+ inches supporting efficient rainfall. We could see a strong storm or two with gusty winds and hail given elevated CAPE above 1500 J/KG this evening. The initial development could be over central KS before the activity focuses further north across northeast KS where we will see a higher potential for some pockets of excessive rain.

A brief lull is expected late tonight in early Friday over southern KS while some storms linger across northeast KS early on Friday. Increasing probabilities for rain will return as we move through the day as a negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts northeast towards the area. With steep mid-lvl lapse rates progged early in the period, some embedded thunderstorms are also possible at times, especially across northern KS later in the day. Some drier air could be wrapped in southeast KS, limiting rainfall as we move into the evening and overnight hours as the system quickly lifts north of the area. Some low pops were maintained on Sat but lingering clouds should keep temperatures near climate normals with highs mostly in the 60s.

Shortwave ridging will return to the area on Sunday with mostly dry weather conditions anticipated during the day. With some breaks in the clouds, afternoon highs may rise into the lower 70s in some areas while parts of central and western KS will see more seasonable highs in the 60s. Another robust mid/upper trough is progged to build over the Rockies late Sunday/Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous Sunday night as the exit region of the upper jet builds over the Southern Plains. The pattern may support a few strong/severe storms as we move through the day on Monday but given the potential for more widespread activity and potential training, pockets of heavy rain may be a bigger concern. High pops were maintained Mon night into Tuesday as numerous showers are anticipated under the upper low. A cold front will usher in more seasonable air as we move into Wed-Thu with highs in the low to mid 60s. Some low pops were maintained on Wed due to uncertainty in the timing of the mid/upper trough. Dry weather conditions are expected to return by late Wed into Thu.

Aviation

Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A stationary boundary is currently draped across the forecast area leading to light and variable winds for central Kansas sites. South of the boundary, light southerly winds prevail. Winds will turn southerly around 10 knots for all sites around midday.

Low clouds and reduced vis from patchy fog is expected to overspread central Kansas sites over the next few hours, with MVFR cigs expected for south-central Kansas around 12Z. MVFR ceilings are then expected for all TAF sites, except CNU, through the end of the period.

Showers will move from south to north between 16-20Z. Some of the newer model guidance is trending these showers a little later, but included the earliest reasonable arrival time in the TAF. Brief slight reductions in vis is expected with the heaviest showers.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.