Hollenberg, KS 66946 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

Day one

Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven

Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms could develop Monday afternoon in eastern Kansas. Damaging wind and an isolated tornado could occur.

More detailed information can be found at: www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Key messages

-Rain showers impact the area this morning and again later this afternoon/evening.

-A stronger system brings windy conditions and a chance for severe thunderstorms on Monday.

-Uncertainty increases on rain chances and temperatures into the middle of next week.

Discussion

Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A shortwave trough axis is moving over the area early today. Water vapor imagery at 08Z shows an area of high atmospheric moisture ahead of the trough axis over eastern KS, and another over the TX panhandle. Scattered rain showers from overnight could become more numerous for the early morning hours today, before possibly tapering off slightly midday. Chances increase again during the afternoon and evening as that next batch of moisture moves in. Southerly flow is keeping temperatures mild this morning in the low 60s. Warming will be limited by cloud cover and rain today, so highs will likely top out in the upper 60s.

Ridging aloft will allow for drier weather Sunday and we may see a bit more sunshine. Highs are expected to reach the low 70s. A storm system off the PNW coast currently will progress eastward over the Great Basin as a deep amplified trough tomorrow, inducing lee cyclogenesis in the Front Range. The surface low will eject out over the High Plains early Monday in response to a lead shortwave. Strong dynamics with the system will allow for a 50 to 60 kt LLJ Monday morning and a tight pressure gradient. Southerly winds will increase to near advisory criteria ahead of the main system. A more unstable air mass will then advect into the area as low level moisture increases, but instability looks to remain fairly limited in general. Showers and storms could develop by midday with a more robust area of storms developing along a cold front during the late afternoon or evening. Instability should be sufficient combined with strong shear parameters to increase the risk for severe storms. Damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado risk will exist Monday afternoon and evening.

Models then differ on the evolution of the H5 and surface low. One solution is for a more progressive low with the cold front moving into Missouri on Tuesday, while the other possibility is for the H5 low to become cutoff over KS, keeping the surface low over the area. At this time, NBM keeps POP elevated through the day on Tuesday, which would be more likely if the system becomes cutoff over the area. Uncertainty also exists in temperatures through midweek and will depend on how the system evolves. The trend should eventually be for cooler conditions once high pressure is able to move into the region.

Aviation

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Rain showers are ongoing early this morning, but should begin to scatter more into the later morning hours. Have included a PROB30 group for additional showers late this afternoon and this evening. Conditions outside of rain should primarily be VFR, but may see some periods of MVFR ceilings tonight after rain ends.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.