Days 8 to 10: NOAA National Blend of Models, station KSPI (Springfield/Lincoln Capital Arpt, 18 mi), model run 10/28/2026, 11:00 AM CDT
Hazardous weather outlookIssued 10/28/2026, 3:10 AM CDT
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.
Day one
Today and tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
Days two through seven
Thursday through Tuesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.
Forecaster's discussionIssued 10/28/2026, 11:51 AM CDT
Key messages
- Well above normal temperatures persist through Friday, with highs climbing to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, around 15 degrees above normal.
- Scattered light showers are possible Thursday into the weekend along a weak frontal boundary, but rain amounts will be light and localized.
- A pronounced pattern shift this weekend through early next week brings high confidence in more widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures. There is a 50-60% chance areawide for over 1 inch of rain to fall in the next 7 days.
Discussion
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
The next shortwave will cause a weak cold front to dip down into central IL on Thursday, then retreat back north as a warm front Friday. There could be some sprinkles or light rain across the northern part of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. Precip chances are greatest Friday with the warm front, near and north of I- 72 (40-70% chance). More rain chances remain in the forecast through the weekend. Whatever light rain manages to fall between now and Sunday will do little to alleviate the ongoing dry stretch.
The start of November will usher in a significant pattern change. A much stronger low pressure system is shown to move through early next week. This system will bring the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area within the next week. The NBM has a widespread 50-70% chance across central and southeastern IL focused on Monday evening into Tuesday evening. Anomalous PWATs for November are forecast for this system's passage, values 1.5-1.8 inches on various models. The LREF shows a 50-60% chance areawide for over 1 inch of rain to fall in the next 7 days.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal for the next few days, then will trend slightly cooler starting Saturday into next week. "Cooler" in this sense means temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s for highs, which is still above normal. The CPC's 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and Week 3-4 outlooks are all continuing to show above normal temperatures. The additional cloud cover and increased rain chances this weekend into next week may inhibit the temperatures from getting too warm, potentially being cooler than what is in the forecast now.
Aviation
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Scattered clouds around 10-15kft will prevail through early Thursday morning, though an incoming cold front will result in lowering ceilings near KPIA by mid to late morning. By the end of the forecast period, there is about a 30-40% chance of MVFR ceilings per NBM guidance, with the HREF a little more aggressive. Rain chances should be fairly meager, though periods of virga are most likely after 12z over the terminals.
Southerly winds in the 10 knot range will continue much of the period, though trend more west-southwest Thursday morning ahead of the front.
Watches, warnings and advisories
None.
From the National Weather Service; may be delayed. Not for life-safety decisions. In an emergency, call 911.
Next 6 hours
NWS hourly forecast
Now76°Sunny0%14 mph
2 PM77°Sunny0%14 mph
3 PM78°Sunny0%15 mph
4 PM78°Sunny0%15 mph
5 PM77°Sunny0%12 mph
6 PM74°Clear0%9 mph
Hourly details
Next 7 days: temperature chart, feels like, rain and snow amounts, sky cover, wind and gustsShowHide
What is the high temperature today in Elkhart, IL 62634?
The National Weather Service forecast for this afternoon calls for a high near 79°F. Sunny.
Will it rain in Elkhart, IL 62634 in the next 24 hours?
The NWS hourly forecast does not show any hour with a 50% or higher chance of precipitation in the next 24 hours.
What is the 10-day forecast for Elkhart, IL 62634?
The first 7 days come from the National Weather Service forecast. Days 8 to 10 (Nov 4 to Nov 6) come from the NOAA National Blend of Models, with highs of 62°F to 70°F and up to a 50% chance of precipitation. Model guidance this far out often changes.
What time is sunrise and sunset in Elkhart, IL 62634 today?
Sunrise is about 7:22 AM CDT and sunset is about 6:00 PM CDT (calculated for the center of the area, within a few minutes).
What is the normal October weather in Elkhart, IL 62634?
At Lincoln, the 1991 to 2020 normal high in October is 66°F and the normal low is 42°F.
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