Garden Prairie, IL 61038 Weather

Key messages

- Above average temperatures to persist through the upcoming weekend, though today looks the warmest.

- While not a wash out, there will be some periodic chances for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms at times late tonight through the upcoming weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Today is shaping up to be an unseasonably mild day area-wide. High temperatures are forecast in the low to mid-70s with breezy southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph this afternoon.

While quiet weather is expected locally today, focus remains on a shortwave impulse tracking eastward into southern Manitoba early this morning. This feature will stay well north of our region today and tonight. However, an associated surface low will push a cold front southward into our area on Thursday. Although the strongest forcing will pass well to the north, unseasonably high low-level moisture (dew points in the mid-to- upper 50s) beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates along the boundary will bring isolated to widely scattered showers late tonight into Thursday.

Shower chances (and possibly a few non-severe thunderstorms) are forecast to increase to 20-40% across northwestern IL for a period after midnight tonight. While some of this activity may work its way eastward into parts of the Chicago metro into the predawn hours of Thursday, it appears the coverage will be at a diurnal minimum as it moves ahead of the primary frontal boundary still to the northwest of the area. However, renewed widely scattered development looks favorable along the front as it shifts into the I-80 corridor and points southward Thursday afternoon.

Although there is not a big push of colder air in the wake of this front, temperatures will be turning cooler (dropping into the 50s by sunset) in its wake Thursday afternoon and evening. Cooler (more seasonable) weather is then expected to persist Friday into the weekend as onshore easterly flow and extensive cloud cover (and even rain at times) persists. Highs are generally forecast to be in the 60s. However, temperatures could end up struggling to climb out of the 50s, particularly across northern IL on Saturday.

Ensemble guidance suggests a series of impulses will track from Mexico east-northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes region during the weekend, followed by a stronger system moving slowly across the central U.S. next week. This will bring periodic rain chances from Friday night through next week. However, dry stretches are still expected between systems. Currently, the highest rain chances appear to be Friday night into Saturday, and again early to mid-next week. This may allow for a dry window late Saturday, just in time for outdoor Halloween activities.

KJB

Aviation

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period:

- Chances for low-level wind shear (LLWS) overnight

- A cold front passing over the area provides chances for light rain, MVFR cigs and a switch to northwest winds in its wake. Low confidence in chances for isolated thunder.

Winds are currently out of the south at around 10 knots. With better mixing this afternoon, wind gusts between 15 to 20 knots are expected. There is a chance that gusts around 15 knots may remain through the overnight, there is better model agreement for lighter winds at the surface. With a strengthening low- level jet in excess of 40 knots tonight, there is a chance for LLWS to develop. There is better confidence in LLWS around KRFD with its closer proximity to the jet core, but still possible over much of northern Illinois.

A cold front is expected to drop southward from Minnesota overnight through tomorrow morning bringing a period of MVFR cigs with its passage. Light showers are expected to accompany the front, but will be weakening as it arrives toward daybreak. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, but confidence is low. Because of the weakening shower chances, there was some consideration of pulling the PROB30 for the Chicago terminals. However, models are trending toward redevelopment along the front tomorrow around 18Z. PROB30s were kept for the Chicago terminals with a TEMPO -SHRA for KGYY with higher confidence of the front's position there when showers redevelop.

Winds are expected to become more westerly prior to the frontal passage and then switch to the northwest in its wake.

DK

Watches, warnings and advisories

IL: None. IN: None. LM: None.